Odds of a major downswing?

[PartySNGer]

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11 buyin downsing - it's nothing.

Last week I came back to SNGs after taking a 6 month hiatus and hitting up NL cash games relentless. When I left my ROI was around 20%. My first 16 games I was OOTM. Figured I was rusty but not that rusty. However after playing 175 SNGs I have now put my ROI at 27%.

Being down $582 at the 55s is nothing though.

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You're missing the point. I know an 11 buy-in downswing is nothing, I've experienced massive ones myself. It's the # of SNGs over which the downswing has occurred that I'm wondering about.

[SammyKid11]

So you're worried about a 500-SnG stretch? Wow. Three weeks ago I was an 18% ROI at the 11-33's (with most of that being at the 22's) through my first 7k'ish SnG's...over the course of my next 550 SnG's I was down 40 buyins.

Now, was some of tilt? Probably. I certainly didn't play perfect poker over the course of the losing swing. But most of it was just a CRAPPY run of cards. It happens from time to time.

11 buyins, whether over the course of 300 or 1000 SnG's...is really not that big a deal. You will experience worse if you play long enough.