AJs, what the hell am I doing?

[DavidC]

Villain is in first 30 hands at table, vpip 11, pfr 11.

Actually... sorry, just checked my other my DB, which I had access to at the time, and therefore would have been in this decision:

90 more hands on top of that, with vpip 47.78 and pfr 2. 0.5 aggression post-flop.

So he's something like vpip 37 pfr 4 and zero ag in this decision.

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Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (7 handed) http://216.119.70.224/converter/hhconverter.pl

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, Hero folds.

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Okay... a few questions:

1) If I'm going to be playing post-flop like this, it's better for me to fold preflop, right?

2) Is there a better way to play this hand?

Question #1 is important, anyone that can back it up with actual numbers would be appreciated.

[Erik W]

I he's a 2% pfr he plays hands like
JJ+ or AK,KK+ so either way u r way behind.
Fold preflop.

[W. Deranged]

David,

1. The pot is laying you better than 3-1; only dominated hands are going to be getting obviously bad odds to play here.

2. Though villain likely has a very small hand range given his tiny pfr, many hands in that range will be pairs, which you have easily sufficient odds to play against (except AA).

3. Villain's tiny Ag factor suggests he probably calls way too much. Hence, there is no need to try to pressure him out of the pot on the flop, but there is an added incentive to take off a flop because you'll likely get paid when you hit.

3a. You are a better player than villain and so some of your likely pre-flop disadvantage will be made up by superior post-flop play.

It seems to me the only good way to play this is exactly as you did. Take of the flop with the intent of dumping if you miss and milking villain for all he's worth when you hit. You want him to be the one giving the reverse-implied odds.

[W. Deranged]

David has him at 11% pfr for one stretch and 4% overall, which is significantly different than 2%. Against hands like 10 10 a fold would be terrible, and hero is getting odds to play against QQ, JJ, etc...

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
I he's a 2% pfr he plays hands like
JJ+ or AK+KK+ so either way u r way behind.
Fold preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

pokerstove:

vs AA-JJ, AKs-AQs, AKo: I have 29.5% equity.

If I remove AQs and JJ from that list (now I have AA-QQ, AK(s)), I still have 28.9%

A lot of my equity comes from when he has AK and I spike a J, and when I river my straights and flushes.

Given that I'm being asked to put in less than 25% of the pot, I don't know how I should play the rest of the hand...

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
David has him at 11% pfr for one stretch and 4% overall, which is significantly different than 2%. Against hands like 10 10 a fold would be terrible, and hero is getting odds to play against QQ, JJ, etc...

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmm... good point. He may be adjusting his play this morning.

How should I play post-flop?

edit: not on just htis board, but on all boards... what sort of stuff should I be looking for? Or is this question WAY too big? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[W. Deranged]

David,

The key is to get implied odds here and not give them. Your equity is just enough to play on, but you have to be sure you don't put in too much money when you're likely behind on later streets, or else your effective odds pre-flop will be cut way down.

I honestly think the only way to play this is a very straightforward fit-or-fold approach. I'd plan on leading pretty much any flop that hits you, and, given villain's agg. profile, probably folding if an A hits and you get raised. I'd bet all the way if not raised.

I think one of the key's here is that villain's profile is such that it is extremely easy to play against him.

[DrBob]

You pose an interesting question. I can't give a complete quantitative answer, but maybe this table will give some insight. I put together a set of possible raising hands, that add to about 4% frequency. The table gives the relative frequency of these hands, given that you hold AJs.
hand rel freq ahead on flop
AA 5.9% 16.7%
KK 11.8% 16.7%
QQ 11.8% 16.7%
JJ 5.9% 16.7%
TT 11.8% 33.3%
AK 23.5% 16.7%
AQ 23.5% 16.7%
AJs 5.9% 50.0%

100.0% 21%
My "ahead on the flop" column is very approximate, assuming a 1/6 chance of pairing a specific one of your cards, and neglecting opp's chance of improving. The latter makes these assessments optimistic. Even so, you rate have only a 21% chance of being ahead on the flop, against his range of hands. This doesn't auger well, HU.

What's confusing to me is that AJs is normally touted as a reasonable cold call hand against a sound raiser.

Hope this helps.
You're paying 2 bets to call a pot of 3.5 bets, a bit worse that 1.75:1.

[W. Deranged]

Hero is paying 1 bet into a pot of 3.5 bets, which makes all the difference.

I think your use of "ahead on the flop" stats is really excellent logic here, and that is what hero is looking for.

[DrBob]

Sorry, you're absolutely correct about the odds, I forgot that hero is BB, so he is only paying 1 bet to call 3.5 (less rake).