I'm turning jason into a LAG. The AQo test?

[elindauer]

Given the read, folding can't possibly be right. If he raises 8% and can be even wider now, you have to play.

The main reason to call is to ensure that you keep the terrible fish in there donating. On the other hand, with AQ, you don't necessarily want this. Isolating the good player with a weak hand may allow you to win this frequently unimproved, especially since a normally tightish player who gets 3-bet when he's on a sort of steal is likely to fold like a cheap suit after the flop.

Therefore, I like a 3-bet. If terrible limper wants to call 2 cold, more power to him. Err, hold on... maybe more power to us. Just a second, I got it... more money to us.

-eric

[elindauer]

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AJo is clearly a loser

[/ QUOTE ]

Prove it.

[elindauer]

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The difference between AJo and AQo is clearly demarcated enough for me to consider AQo an easy 3-bet.

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I agree with Entity here. In my mind, AJ becomes marginal, but perhaps still 3-bettable, and AQ is clearly there. Whether or not it's a huge sum of money made when I 3-bet is up for debate, but what's "clear" is that 3-betting is profitable and better then calling. Maybe it's only a fraction better and I'm really dialed in, but in my mind, it's "clear".

-Eric

[bernie]

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The main reason to call is to ensure that you keep the terrible fish in there donating.

[/ QUOTE ]

It would be a rarity if the limper as described in the OP folded for 2 more bets after limping in initially.

3 betting preflop also tends to make the hand easier to play.

b

[elindauer]

A terrible fish limps. You have the range of cards that you would raise. What hands would you raise?

Now, with that in mind, what do you want the guy on your right to do with AQ?

I'd say I'd want him to play like this:

- fold
- call and play fit or fold
- call and play tough
- 3-bet

Really, call and play tough and 3-bet should be pretty similar, but the 3-bet is going to have me heads up with the 3-bettor with OOP with my crap hand more than calling, so I prefer that he just call.

Since 3-bet shows up at the bottom of my list of what I want my opponents to do, that's what I do when I'm the guy with the AQ.

-Eric

[disjunction]

The 3-bet seems to be a little worse than his range, but the dead money mostly makes up for it. If you don't 3-bet here, you better not play many more pots with him, because your options on future hands are either (1) Limit yourself to AA-QQ, AK, or (2) Replace your avatar with an "I don't have an Ace when I 3-bet" sign.

[Underlord]

Should be ahead of his range as long as it includes hands like A9s, KTs, KJo, and ATo, which is likely given his 13/8 stats over 2k+ hands and being in the hijack with a bad fish limper.

Likely hand range:

equity (%)
Hand 1: 52.9966 % { AQo }
Hand 2: 47.0034 % { 77+, A9s+, KTs+, QJs, ATo+, KJo+ } {11.8% of hands)

Including bad limper (a 42/3 type):

equity (%)
Hand 1: 37.2694 % { AQo }
Hand 2: 36.5258 % { 77+, A9s+, KTs+, QJs, ATo+, KJo+ }
Hand 3: 26.2047 % { JJ-22, A2s+, K5s+, Q6s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 54s, 43s, A2o+, K7o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T8o+, 97o+, 87o }


Tighter hand range:

equity (%)
Hand 1: 49.1142 % { AQo }
Hand 2: 50.8858 % { 77+, ATs+, KJs+, QJs, AJo+, KQo } {9.4% of hands}

Including the bad limper

equity (%)
Hand 1: 34.9757 % { AQo }
Hand 2: 39.0491 % { 77+, ATs+, KJs+, QJs, AJo+, KQo }
Hand 3: 25.9751 % { JJ-22, A2s+, K5s+, Q6s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 54s, 43s, A2o+, K7o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T8o+, 97o+, 87o }


If they both call the 3bet and blinds fold, you'll have put 3 small bets into a 10.5 small bet pot (28.5% of the money) with at least 35-37% equity, initiative, position on both of them, and at least one of them playing poorly postflop.

AQo is a 3-bet here for me. AJo however is much more marginal case, probably requiring an opponent with a wider raising range, or specific postflop reads.

[Justin A]

[ QUOTE ]
I can do the math if this is challenged, but I think you are behind raiser's range. I think PFR converges very quickly and would give that 2300 hand read some weight. Since we are getting pretty exact in this thread, it is pertinent to know how the 13/8 stat is filtered.

Even though you are behind raiser's range, I think there is a case to made for 3 betting, and it is what I would do.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are behind the PFR's raising range. However, the limper and the blinds and your position more than make up for this.

[slavic]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
AJo is clearly a loser

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Prove it.

[/ QUOTE ]

As I stated in my post this was done by feel but we have a fairly tight raiser who we suspect is maybe playing a bit looser with the limper. Well AJ doubles our domination chances, I suspect that our villan is not much looser than ATo and maybe KQ KJ ish and of course the pairs and I'll say down to 66 on those. That's about 12% of hands and I don't see him getting to much further out of line with at least the BB likely to play also. (Remember he's only making it 2 bets)

With that hand range AJo is at an equity disadvantage to the raise, plus we have the nice added position of having to pay off with our dominated hands.

AQo it's close it really is and it could really hinge on one or two hands that the guy might raise with. Now if your going to tell me he raises with 1/3 of all hands here yea it's an easy 3 bet, but he's not going to widen his range that much if he only has an 8% raise score overall.

[flair1239]

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Because the statisical information seems to favor Jason's read.

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Where did you get the impression that a 13/8 is unduly tight with his PFR standards after a limper?

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I was just wondering what specifically made you think that he was not.