AK as an isolator, against an isolator

[lil feller]

[ QUOTE ]
It's really interesting, on the turn, I think because if I bet he could really do any one of the four things:

Call hands he should call
Fold hands he should fold
Call hands he should fold
Fold hands he should call.

I guess my thinking was he'd do the first two a lot more than he'd do the second two. I may very well be wrong, and given the majority of responses, I guess I may. I think that my aforementioned thoughts along with the ensuing confusion that will arise if I get checkraised made me check. I don't like tough decisions, so I tried to avoid one, by checking.


[/ QUOTE ]

Certainly a valid analysis, but I think you might be underestimating how often he folds a crappy pair. Keep in mind he might also have a 6 out hand, like QJ or something, that should call if he knew what you had, but you would rather get a fold from.

[ QUOTE ]
But that's only results oriented thinking that makes the AK think he played the hand well. In reality, in a 10ish BB pot, you WANT people calling with their three outers. In fact, if they are going to fold their three outer (but will ever bluff or payoff on the river), you specifically DON'T WANT THEM TO FOLD.

[/ QUOTE ]

Very true, but you also don't want them to draw for free when they would have called anyway. Slowplaying is only necessary when your opponent(s) are drawing slim-to-dead AND wouldn't have called a bet. Rarely do these two circumstances co-exist. In this particural hand, any 3 outer (especially AQ) is certainly calling a turn bet.

[ QUOTE ]
I think, the more I think about it, his flop checkraise is going to be a pair a very high percentage of the time. Maybe T9. Maybe 77. Maybe JJ. Given that he may checkraise any of these on the turn (if he reads my threebet as a "get outta my pot, straggler" bet), I still like checking the turn. But against a 17/8 player who very likely has a pair on the flop, I think I can give up on the river without paying off.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with the range. I think, however, if he's aware of your stats (and he probably is) he isn't c/r the turn without a hand that has you at 3 outs or less, and you can safely fold to the c/r. As far as the river, i'd be inclined to call. The combined information value (iso-standards up front and c/r standards vs the field) and potential showdown value (you did check the turn...) would make it worth the BB to see his hand, expecting to lose most of the time.

interesting hand to be sure.

lf