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#1
12-01-2005, 06:04 PM
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Re: AA raise the river?
I'd raise it.
-WT 
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#2
12-01-2005, 06:22 PM
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Re: AA raise the river?
I guess you have to guess how often he 3-bets Q10 vs KK,JJ,99 preflop?
Seems like a raise to me atleast.
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#3
12-01-2005, 06:41 PM
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Re: AA raise the river?
[ QUOTE ]
I guess you have to guess how often he 3-bets Q10 vs KK,JJ,99 preflop? Seems like a raise to me atleast. [/ QUOTE ] Umm, he doesn't have QT ever. He also is unlikely to have JJ or 99. I think you can put square on KK (more likely) or AK and he puts you on AK. Raise the river one more time and if he has Qs (well he won't, next)
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#4
12-01-2005, 06:54 PM
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Re: AA raise the river?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I guess you have to guess how often he 3-bets Q10 vs KK,JJ,99 preflop? Seems like a raise to me atleast. [/ QUOTE ] Umm, he doesn't have QT ever. He also is unlikely to have JJ or 99. I think you can put square on KK (more likely) or AK and he puts you on AK. Raise the river one more time and if he has Qs (well he won't, next) [/ QUOTE ] I must be way out to lunch here but villian's play, on every street, is quite consistent with QT, probably QTs. It is also quite consistent with KK, JJ, and 99. Although KK may not have bet the flop so I think it is the least likely. I guess the only debatable street for QT is pre-flop but hero open raised from teh CO which is a steal. QT would certainly play here and may occasionaly raise, and I think he would be right to raise occasionaly and is certainly right to play the hand. I don't know how you can totally dismiss QT here.
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#5
12-01-2005, 07:08 PM
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Re: AA raise the river?
hey Mark, long time no see. I don't think you can totally dismiss QT, but the thing is not many people would 3bet QT from the BB. And of those who would, a lot (probably most) would not donk it on the flop. This parlay is why I would discount it a lot. I think the donk with OESD is especially unlikely if BB is a decent player. Additionally, the T on the river makes it 25% less likely he holds QT.
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#6
12-01-2005, 09:23 PM
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Re: AA raise the river?
[ QUOTE ]
hey Mark, long time no see. I don't think you can totally dismiss QT, but the thing is not many people would 3bet QT from the BB. And of those who would, a lot (probably most) would not donk it on the flop. This parlay is why I would discount it a lot. I think the donk with OESD is especially unlikely if BB is a decent player. Additionally, the T on the river makes it 25% less likely he holds QT. [/ QUOTE ] Yah, I've been out of town for most of November. I agree with what you have said, but I think QTs is a possibility here. 21/14 seems agressive enough to occasionally 3-bet QTs... I would do it - albeit very rarely. You are also right about the donk bet being strange by a good player on that flop. I just think Red Rain was being a bit too dismissive. But, in hind sight it does seem less likely than even I originally thought. My post was a knee jerk rejaction to something that I thought was being too dismissive... serves me right for not playing a hand in three weeks or so. I would not have found a raise on the river here.
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#7
12-01-2005, 10:04 PM
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Re: AA raise the river?
I guess maybe I am too passive in the BB to even think about this or bad at reading the stats, I would think someone would have to be closer to 16-18% PFR to 3 bet this and aggression of say 2-2.5.
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#8
12-01-2005, 10:35 PM
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Re: AA raise the river?
[ QUOTE ]
And of those who would, a lot (probably most) would not donk it on the flop. This parlay is why I would discount it a lot. I think the donk with OESD is especially unlikely if BB is a decent player. [/ QUOTE ] He could be planning on donking twice or going for a screwplay. Especially given the average mid/hi 2+2ers penchant for auto-capping medium pairs in this spot preflop.
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#9
12-01-2005, 07:27 PM
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Re: AA raise the river?
I agree. It isn't completely out of the question, so the OP doesnt need to get to carried away in this spot.
Tex
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#10
12-01-2005, 07:35 PM
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Re: AA raise the river?
[ QUOTE ]
I agree. It isn't completely out of the question, so the OP doesnt need to get to carried away in this spot. Tex [/ QUOTE ] How you think a guy with these stats has QTo or QTs is really making me wonder. I'd like to change my answer to he has AK.
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