Downswings

How long do [censored] downswings usually last? Is it normal to be losing the vast majority of all ins when you're a favorite for a month or more at a time? 65/35 and 70/30 edges are meaningless to me. Because my stomach drops whenever I see that I'm favored like that. It's a sure loser.

Seriously, any notion of how long downswings can last would help me out. I'm on the verge of quitting the game because I don't know if I'm a good player anymore.

I know my sample size isn't big enough but I built my bankroll from $100 to $2000 through SNGs and last month's ITM% was 45%. I have finished ITM in 3 of my last 25 SNGs. Since I haven't changed my play, is this a cold run or do I need to question whether or not I should even play this game?

[Nepa]

[ QUOTE ]
How long do [censored] downswings usually last? Is it normal to be losing the vast majority of all ins when you're a favorite for a month or more at a time? 65/35 and 70/30 edges are meaningless to me. Because my stomach drops whenever I see that I'm favored like that. It's a sure loser.

Seriously, any notion of how long downswings can last would help me out. I'm on the verge of quitting the game because I don't know if I'm a good player anymore.

I know my sample size isn't big enough but I built my bankroll from $100 to $2000 through SNGs and last month's ITM% was 45%. I have finished ITM in 3 of my last 25 SNGs. Since I haven't changed my play, is this a cold run or do I need to question whether or not I should even play this game?

[/ QUOTE ]

It is really tough to tell from this post weather you are a winning player or losing player. I win a fair amount of SNG's and get sucked out on plenty of times.

i just got burned with a similar post.
im down way more than you...your sample size is so small...just keep playing...variance is a bitch
and yes it can get worse
trust me i know how you feel

[Indiana]

If u play big pots with amateurs, you will have greater variance and greater downswings. Play good poker and get value out of your good hands but don't try to get more than they are worth.

Indy

[applejuicekid]

Come on guy, did you read the FAQ? Anyway most of your questions can be answered in this FAQ on variance.

[xGoreDudex]

I am new to Sit&G's in general, however I find that "bad beats" are just the cost of doing business and 25 sits is nothing, which I'm sure you know anyway, but just keep grinding..if I can beat these anybody can. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[KingDan]

[ QUOTE ]
If u play big pots with amateurs, you will have greater variance and greater downswings. Play good poker and get value out of your good hands but don't try to get more than they are worth.

Indy

[/ QUOTE ]

You'll have much worse downswings against better players, as your edge is less.

[Shilly]

127 SNGs.

[RedBean]

[ QUOTE ]
How long do [censored] downswings usually last?
Is it normal to be losing the vast majority of all ins when you're a favorite for a month or more at a time? 65/35 and 70/30 edges are meaningless to me. Because my stomach drops whenever I see that I'm favored like that. It's a sure loser.

Seriously, any notion of how long downswings can last would help me out. I'm on the verge of quitting the game because I don't know if I'm a good player anymore.

I know my sample size isn't big enough but I built my bankroll from $100 to $2000 through SNGs and last month's ITM% was 45%. I have finished ITM in 3 of my last 25 SNGs. Since I haven't changed my play, is this a cold run or do I need to question whether or not I should even play this game?

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't beat yourself up over a downswing that spans 25 games. It can and will get worse at times.

As for the seemingly endless losses with 70/30's you talk about, take solace in knowing you got in with the best of it, regardless of the results.

Also understand, that even while it may seem they are "sure losers" during your bad run, they a 70/30 is a 70/30 every time. In the long run, those payoff. Think marathon, not sprint.

You can't control variance, you can only hope to contain it. If you can't handle the variance at your current level, find one where you can.

[Shilly]

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You can't control variance, you can only hope to contain it.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's awesome.