Downswings

[pergesu]

I started my downswing the day I started playing poker...and it seems to keep going. Hopefully some time soon I'll stop being variance's bitch.

[ace_in_the_hole]

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127 SNGs.

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Please dont tell me this is you stating that you have had a 127 BI downswing.

[Bluff Daddy]

"You tried your best and you failed miserably. The lesson is 'never try'."
Homer Simpson

my roll went from 450 to 10.60. you just have to keep on truckin.

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As for the seemingly endless losses with 70/30's you talk about, take solace in knowing you got in with the best of it, regardless of the results.

Also understand, that even while it may seem they are "sure losers" during your bad run, they a 70/30 is a 70/30 every time. In the long run, those payoff. Think marathon, not sprint.


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Good post. If you find yourself losing out on these 70/30 situations, the thing to remember is you made the correct play. You will find you will have a run where these always hold up eventually. I have just been through a mini run of of 5 underpairs making a set against me after they have moved all in, which aint nice but again its a case of the long run.

[tshort]

Does this answer your question?


Variance and Downswings

A small FAQ on variance. In short, variance is great, and stinks, all at the same time. Whatever your most recent downswing is, it’s very likely that another 2+2er has had worse. We commiserate, I promise. But we usually don’t want to hear about it.

To answer the other standard question: What is a really long out of the money streak for a winning player? The math is pretty easy to figure out what the chances of any given run are with a given ITM, but any random number in the teens is the standard stinky run number.

You have posted here 55 times, so I'm assuming you've read this.

[Edit]I read one of your first posts titled "Distributions" where you were flamed about sample size and reading the FAQ.

Do you have any evidence you're a winning poker player? That would be a pre-req to figuring out if it is variance or if you are a break-even/losing player.

[HesseJam]

I dunno,

during the las 100 tourneys I felt that I've won most of them when I didn't deserve to win (went in with the worst of it but sucked out at crucial points) and busted out a lot of times when I thought I deserved to win. At Party I played a very tight aggresssive game and variance was a lot higher than at Stars where I play a more active (also a tad looser)/ aggressive game.

So far, variance at Party was way higher than at Stars. OTH, I have only 400 SnGs at each sites. So I probably cannot deduct anything from this.

[4ever]

Used SNG's on Pokerroom to build $20 into $490 over about 3 months of playing durring free time. Lost in all in two days because of variance. Its actually kind of comforting to read about someone else going through it.

[AbelM]

Human brains are [censored] up and can't deal with stuff like variance. That's why it is so important to keep track of your results.

If you don't you're brain will tell you that the best you ever ran (in your case last month where you had ITM of 45%) is how you would run normally and everything else is running bad.

There is a solution though: don't be results oriented and just try to play your best. This has been said many many times before but for some reason only a few can do it. If you can you will be a big champion, regardless of what limit you play [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[kevstreet]

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Good post...

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What the hell is going on around here? I take off a couple of days from the STT forum to come back and find this. It sure is getting soft around here. Is the reverse "lunatiC" on vacation?

Anyway, 25 OOTM is nothing, sample size, you got your chips in with the best of it, bad beat, read the FAQ, keep playing good poker, take a day off, review hand histories, all of the cliche's apply here.