Is this worth a hedge/middle (Arizona +9.5)

[jedinite]

I've got a five-team teaser, 2.5 units wagered to win 10 units. I strongly expect this teaser to be live entering the late game, based on the early action.

I'll be riding 2.5 units to win 20 units on Arizona +9.5
I know this is a great position to be in, as I calculate the EV of AZ +9.5 to be extremely significant (as they're already a single-unit play in my picks at +3.5).

Question is, is it worth trying to middle with Jacksonville -3.5 (-105) as a hedge, something like 3 units on Jacks -3.5 where I could win both bets if Jacks wins by a TD? What if Jacksonville moves to -3 (-110) or even moving it to -3 (-120 or -115).

I'm most inclined to just let it ride, but my thoughts are if I can get Jacksonville -3 -110 it might be worth a middling hedge.

Jacksonville wins by exactly 3 I'd win my one unit bet on AZ +3.5, push on Jacks -3 and win the tease for a net of +13 units

If Jacks wins by 4-9 I'd lose 1.1 unit on AZ +3.5, win 3 units on Jacks -3 and win 10 units on the tease for a net of +11.9 units

If Jacks wins by less than three or Arizona wins outright, I win +1 unit on AZ +3.5, win the tease for +10 units, and lose 3.15 units on the hedge/middle for a net of +7.85 units.

If Jacks wins by more than 10, I lose the tease for -2.5 units, lose the one unit on AZ for -1.1 unit, and win the hedge for +3 units for a total of -.6 unit.

Or I could hedge four units to guarantee a small profit, etc...

Thanks in advance for the feedback...

[jedinite]

[ QUOTE ]
Jacksonville wins by exactly 3 I'd win my one unit bet on AZ +3.5, push on Jacks -3 and win the tease for a net of +11 units


[/ QUOTE ]

Fixed a mistake in above...

[Lori]

In my opinion you shouldn't have had the fifth part of the bet if you were not sure what to do should the first four win.

If you think the -3 part of the bet has any EV at all, then you are right to middle. However with you thinking the +3.5 is +EV then I would assume it is unlikely that the -3 would be too.

At this point it would become more of a hedge than a middle (The middle being the +EV bet).

However if the -3 is EV neutral then you could back it as big as you liked to make your returns more comfortable, and if it is SLIGHTLY negative then you could take it too because having a slightly bigger bankroll guaranteed will have some future value to a winning player.

Of course, if you end up taking a slightly negative bet, you only have yourself to blame for getting into the position where taking it might be correct, however just because you shouldn't be in that position doesn't mean it is neccessarily wrong to take it.

The fact that this is a middle and you could win both ways is always a nice thing, but in EV terms is totally irrelevant (That being said, I only usually hedge on bets where I can have a slight middle as it is always nice to have a big parlay come in and is therefore nice to keep it live with an middly-hedge )

I am also 99% certain you already knew all of the above, but maybe it will help you make a choice.

Lori

[jedinite]

Thanks Lori, it does help seeing it spelled out in black & white.

I'll let this pass, and stick with the +EV of AZ +9.5

I am live on my tease:

Date placed:
Nov 24, 2005 3:26p 5 Team Teaser #24628027

(108) Dallas Cowboys +8 Thu@4:15p
(Teased 6.0 points)

(172) Kansas City Chiefs +3 Sun@1:00p
(Teased 6.0 points)

(174) Cincinnati Bengals -3 Sun@1:00p
(Teased 6.0 points)

(177) Chicago Bears +9 Sun@1:00p
(Teased 6.0 points)

(188) Arizona Cardinals +9½ Sun@4:05p
(Teased 6.0 points)

[Lori]

All the best jedi, I'm pretty quiet on the evening games so I'll be cheering for you [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Lori

[jedinite]

Thanks for the mojo, Lori - tease came through.

Given that Arizona had a very solid chance at the end to tie it up and likely cover the 3.5, i'm very happy on the decision not to hedge (even though the hedge/middle would have landed right on Jacksonville winning by seven).

For the record, this was originally the six-team tease with Detroit +9 which I posted as part of my picks thread, which obviously I felt had a ton of value. When that fell through with Detroit I placed this teaser with the remaining 5/6 teams.

[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Nice hit!

[Easy E]

I guess not