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#1
08-23-2005, 10:37 AM
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World series bets
Does anyone else think that San Diego (at 28:1) and Cleveland (in some places 40:1) look like pretty good value bets to win the World Series? San Diego is going to make the playoffs, and Cleveland has a good 30% chance of doing so in my opinion. I would think that 16:1 for SD and 30:1 for Cleveland would be closer to correct prices.
Thoughts anyone? It seems to me that the playoffs once begun are more of a crapshoot than the betting public likes to believe. 
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#2
08-23-2005, 12:44 PM
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Re: World series bets
No, I dont like either. Each may make the playoffs, but could they beat the Red Sox, Cardinals? Absolutely no chance. Could the Padres even beat the Braves, Phillies or Marlins? No again. Plus the Indians are simply too inconsistent to win playoff series back to back to back. I think those odds are great for the bookies because they look like tempting value, but I it is worse than it looks.
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#3
08-23-2005, 01:30 PM
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Re: World series bets
[ QUOTE ]
No, I dont like either. Each may make the playoffs, but could they beat the Red Sox, Cardinals? Absolutely no chance. [/ QUOTE ] Not even a 3% chance? Thats what SD's odds imply. Which implies that they have only a 30% chance to win each series they would be involved in to get there. 70/30 favorites are rare IMO. Thats why .600 ballclubs are exceptional.
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#4
08-23-2005, 03:33 PM
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Re: World series bets
SD's about 80% to make the playoffs. They're maybe 42% to win a typical game against a playoff opponent. That translates to a 35% chance to win a 5 game series, and a 33% chance to win a 7 game series.
.8*.35*.33*.33 = ~.03. That'd give the Padres to win the WS a break even point of about 32-1.
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#5
08-23-2005, 03:40 PM
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Re: World series bets
[ QUOTE ]
No, I dont like either. Each may make the playoffs, but could they beat the Red Sox, Cardinals? Absolutely no chance. Could the Padres even beat the Braves, Phillies or Marlins? No again. Plus the Indians are simply too inconsistent to win playoff series back to back to back. I think those odds are great for the bookies because they look like tempting value, but I it is worse than it looks. [/ QUOTE ] Way off. Go here to get a clue as to how the playoffs work in baseball.
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