TOP Re-Read Ch's 1-4

[maddog2030]

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by FTOP we would be incorrect to fold TT to an open push if we saw their AK, even if all we are getting is 1:1 + blinds. i think the generally accepted rule is to pass on a coin flip (slight edge) early to survive...though i don't know if i'd take this spot in a deep stacked cash game either...

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I'd take it early in an SNG, good for the hourly rate. In something like a live MTT, I'd pass.

In a cash game, I'd also take it, especially if it let me contend even deeper with a juiced player.

[tewall]

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I'd take it early in an SNG, good for the hourly rate.

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Your thinking is either you'll get yourself in real good position for a high finish, or you'll just start another tourney. This is interesting. It seems intuitively wrong to me, however. I'll have to think about it.

It seems to me that if you fold you're in a situation where you are likely to finish ITM. If you call there's about a 50% chance you're done. If you win, it seems to me you don't gain nearly as much as you lose, so the risk/reward thing is off. If it were more like 2 to 1 instead of 13 to 11 I'd agree.

[maddog2030]

I did some calculations a while ago. If you're a pretty big winner at whatever limit (>17% ROI), you shouldn't do this. Less than that, it's either around breakeven even or +EV for you to take this. Also this is assuming 55/45, because its not going to be 50/50.

[Krazy Dan]

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I did some calculations a while ago. If you're a pretty big winner at whatever limit (>17% ROI), you shouldn't do this. Less than that, it's either around breakeven even or +EV for you to take this. Also this is assuming 55/45, because its not going to be 50/50.

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Actually, I like his thinking and reasoning here, that since you can always start a new SNG and that doubling up will almost always put you in the money, that you're spending time in a tournament with a higher probability of cashing.

Why would you use ROI as a measurement of this play's EV? I may be a SNG newbie, but certainly we play to maximize our hourly rates, not our ROI. Certainly multitabling lowers ROI but people do it because it can increase their hourly winrate.

[tewall]

You're trading off the equity you already have by being in the game as a better player in exchange for the equity you gain as a 13 to 11 favorite. He's saying it's worth doing this if your ROI is less than 17%. The ROI is just a way of measuring the equity you're giving up.

I play low level, so I think I'd be correct in passing this up; but maddog is probably correct in taking it, assuming he's playing at a higher level. So we're both right. Yay!