Unconventional Line with KQ, flopped OESD

[jediael]

BB is TAG but not expert with a solid 3-betting range, I suppose AK, AQ, TT.

What do you think of the following line given BBs range?


Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, Hero calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: (6.25 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls, MP3 folds.

River: (8.25 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>

The problem is that you didn't cap preflop and don't beat anything on the river except unimproved big aces. You've been passive the whole way and haven't set up this play. Had you, say, raised the flop or capped preflop, it would be more credible. It can work now and then, but you have to consider the play through the entire hand, not just as a surprise play on the river.

All that having been said, I do like throwing this raise in there on the river. You've got a chance to get him to fold that is probably better than what you need to make the play profitable, and it's excellent for metagame reasons. You know he won't reraise you without the nuts (which he likely does not have), and if you have to show down this bluff you'll almost certainly make up the lost bets on later hands due to increased action on your monsters. Just make sure you remember you made the play and make it again when you're in a similar spot ...

[jediael]

Raising earlier in the hand does not have any fold equity. I also do not have any pot equity. Waiting to raise until the river gives me the biggest fold equity for the lowest cost.

I really think the flop and turn calls are correct. Whether the river is a fold or a raise depends on the opponent.

I did a calculation getting the following result: if the opponent always bets AK and AQ in this situation, then raising is correct when he folds these hands to a raise more than 15% of the time.

If he just bets his AK and AQ 20% of the time here, then raising is correct if he folds these hands to a raise more than 75% of the time.

If he just bets AK and AQ 15% of the time or less, then raising on the river is never correct.

You can probably interpolate results in between.

[ QUOTE ]
Raising earlier in the hand does not have any fold equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not on that street, but if you're going to make this play the earlier raise increases the chance your opponent will fold later. Reread my post if you are unclear.

[jediael]

I am not at all unclear. Please do not lecture me, I find it a bit offensive as I am actually a long term 30/60 and 100/200 player.

In fact, the hand wasnt even played by me, but by a friend of mine. My first thought was to call the flop and raise the turn or possibly raise the flop and bet the turn. This however, given his hand range, is sub-optimal. Do you see why? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] (Couldn't resist)

You do realize that raising on an earlier street and then betting the river has a much lower fold equity/cost ratio?

[whodaman]

[ QUOTE ]
Please do not lecture me, I find it a bit offensive as I am actually a long term 30/60 and 100/200 player

[/ QUOTE ]

well in that case i wont comment

[jediael]

Feel free to comment, but please do not treat me as a complete retard