TQs BB. Standard?

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
thanks for that nice analysis.

the counter argument, and the reason i raised is to push my pot equity which i feel is more than the 14.3% i need to make this a value raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

What do you think your equity in this situation is?

Edit: Okay, I see that you ran QTs vs a bunch of random hands. People don't limp with random hands, so what do you think your equity in THIS situation is?

--Dave.

Edit: I'm not going to complain too much if your hand ranges for them are a little different than mine, nor if you give everyone the same hand range, but let's get it fairly close to reasonable.

Edit: FWIW, I think that this may be worth raising preflop...

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
The flop sucks... ...Unfortunately, you're getting enormous odds now, so you have to chase your two-outter anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

You've got to give hero more than two outs here. Read Small Stakes Holdem, by Ed Miller, to learn more.

[Schwartzy61]

What are we looking at here, about 5 outs?

2 for the Ts
1.5 for the Qs
1.5 for the backdoor straight?

Perhaps discount another full out because of the flush potential?

4 outs on that board? Does that sound about right...

[Vote4Pedro]

Who says were behind on the flop?

[Schwartzy61]

I didn't say we're behind, but is our Ts likely to be favored to hold up on that board?

And the remark was "we have to give more than two outs," so if we are behind, what outs do we have to improve to a probable best hand? I was just doing some extra work on my outs calculations...

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
Who says were behind on the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point.

OOC, what's the probability that one of them has a jack?

I _think_ that we'd find this out using a poisson distribution, but I'm not sure how to do that.

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
What are we looking at here, about 5 outs?

2 for the Ts
1.5 for the Qs
1.5 for the backdoor straight?

Perhaps discount another full out because of the flush potential?

4 outs on that board? Does that sound about right...

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd give us like 1.95 for the two tens, cause you know, ATo beats us here. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I'd give us 0.25 for the Qc and 0.80 for each of the other Q's: 1.85 outs... that's 3.8 outs.

I can't remember, but I think a BDS is 1 out. We may be splitting or "splitting by three" (is there a word for that?) the straight though, so I'd give us something like 0.65 for it rather than 1.

All-in-all, that's about 4.65 outs.

Turn: This is a good fold.

Flop: I think consensus on this board will be to bet. I'm not sure that it'd be correct to do so, though.

Edit: Warning: the numbers that I'm using are rough and not based on any real knowledge of poker probaiblity. Also, just want to say that I think post-flop play is probably very good.

[Jake (The Snake)]

[ QUOTE ]
I can't remember, but I think a BDS is 1 out. We may be splitting or "splitting by three" (is there a word for that?) the straight though, so I'd give us something like 0.65 for it rather than 1.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think one misconception a lot of people have is that all backdoor straights are created equal (not saying you do David, just trying to point something out).

A quick way for doing backdoor straight estimates is figuring out how many outs give you how many outs.

Here, for example, we have:

4 Kings give us 8 outs
4 Aces give us 4 outs
4 8's give us 4 outs
4 9's give us 8 outs

Then multiply them together and divide by 47 to give us a very close approximation. 32+16+16+32 = 96/47 = 2.04 backdoor straight outs.

Then you can reduce from there for splits, reverse implied odds, etc.

I think .65 is too low, I'd guess about twice that.

[Schwartzy61]

Grunch...

Why are we raising this preflop?

I would tend to check this here because our position on the flop is gonna suck.

[Vote4Pedro]

Why didnt you bet the flop?