AKo turn decision - Page 3

soweak. · #21 06-26-2005, 07:27 PM

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I thought this was easy, but then other people thought it was easy the other way. After discussing this with 4 people, we all came to different conclusions for different reasons so from that I concluded this isn't standard.

BB and UTG are passive donks. SB slightly tighter but basically a straight forward donk.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 max, 8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, 3 folds, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (6 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, Hero ...

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BB and UTG are passive donks. SB slightly tighter but basically a straight forward donk.

I think that's all you need to justify a bet in these conditions. However low, they may all fold to you. Also with your passive read, 2/3's of the people in the hand are more likley to call as opposed to raise if they have you beat.

I would bet and fold to any C/R. On the turn I would fold to a bet UI and check the river if checked to.

KDawgCometh · #22 06-26-2005, 08:19 PM

I think its both fold equity and value, as odd as that sounds. given your reads, they could have anything, so we could also have the best hand. I think that a bet protects the hand here too,if we can fold out any odd draws and small pairs, then we've done what we needed to do

mosch · #23 06-26-2005, 08:31 PM

You have three loose opponents. They're calling you with pairs, straight draws (real and imagined), flush draws and (most likely) overcards.

The board isn't scary. If you were his opponent would you really believe he'd just checked raised pf with a five in his hand, bet the flop with a gutshot, then spiked it on the turn?

Or would you put him on some combination of 'overcards/pair'?

JoshuaD · #24 06-26-2005, 08:43 PM

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You have three loose opponents. They're calling you with pairs, straight draws (real and imagined), flush draws and (most likely) overcards.

The board isn't scary. If you were his opponent would you really believe he'd just checked raised pf with a five in his hand, bet the flop with a gutshot, then spiked it on the turn?

Or would you put him on some combination of 'overcards/pair'?

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Do you really think LP's are putting their opponents on hands? They're playing their own cards, and on that board a pair of 6's doesn't look very good.

mosch · #25 06-26-2005, 08:53 PM

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Do you really think LP's are putting their opponents on hands?

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This is a good point. It's been a while since I've frequented SS.

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on that board a pair of 6's doesn't look very good.

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yes, but since when do 1/2 players fold just because they're about to lose. Low limit games are full of people who call down 'just in case'.

JoshuaD · #26 06-26-2005, 09:04 PM

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Do you really think LP's are putting their opponents on hands?

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This is a good point. It's been a while since I've frequented SS.

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on that board a pair of 6's doesn't look very good.

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yes, but since when do 1/2 players fold just because they're about to lose. Low limit games are full of people who call down 'just in case'.

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I always thought that they're calling when they percieve that they have some chance to suck out. I don't know what the psychological reason is, but it seems that bad players really enjoy taking a weak hand and having it pull ahead of a strong one. Then they get to the river and call one more "just in case".

A perfect example of this is how profitable it is to continue semi-bluffing when the top card pairs:

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, 3 folds, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, SB calls, BB calls, UTG folds.

Turn: (5.5 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets

You will find ALOT of folds from your opponents in this situation. Either that or a check-raise which you can safely fold to (Another example of it being right to bet because you can safely fold to a check-raise).

When the flop comes they think "he probably has a K, but I can get two pair or three of a kind to beat him", but when the turn card comes, they now think "Oh man, he's got 3 kings, I'm done."

The hand Emmit posted is different -- but most fish aren't nuanced enough to realize it. They don't eliminate a 6 from your possible holdings because they're not really using much logic, they're just assuming your strong because you've been betting the whole time, and the easiest hand to put someone on who apears strong on this board is a straight.

There being alot of villians here also helps us because the first guy to act after Hero bets is probably vaugely aware that someone behind him might have a straight. Compound that with the fact that Hero's been pounding on him the entire hand, and he'll probably decide that his pair isn't worth continuing with.

JoshuaD · #27 06-26-2005, 09:14 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think its both fold equity and value, as odd as that sounds. given your reads, they could have anything, so we could also have the best hand. I think that a bet protects the hand here too,if we can fold out any odd draws and small pairs, then we've done what we needed to do

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Just quoting this because it's very true.

mdeck · #28 06-26-2005, 10:31 PM

I agree with your rationale in this spot. The fact is, if an A or K spikes on the river after you take the free card and someone bets I think you might be obligated to make a crying call.

Remember also ,these players may be donks but they are thinking individuals like the rest of us, they just think on a lower level. If you check through the turn a busted draw may just put you on overcards and push you off what might be the best hand in this situation.

Add in the fact that a bet on the turn may get some players to fold (possible donk thought: "there's no way he can bet on this board without an big pair") as well as defining where you stand in this hand. If you get raised its an easy fold, and if you get called I'm betting you can get a free showdown.

In most cases you're going to be putting in one more bb into this pot, you might as well do it in the spot that gives you the best chance to take the pot.

mscags · #29 06-26-2005, 10:42 PM

Easy check IMO

toss · #30 06-26-2005, 10:55 PM

I like a continuation bet of AQo on a 36KK board a lot better. In the other hands I think villain is more likely to but us on overcards than the straight.