2-7 noob hand #2

[Aicirt]

Slight converter problem here as it says my vilain is UTG when I was UTG. Villain is actually SB.

Staying pat on the 3rd draw is correct, yes?
Is my limp pre-draw UTG weak or loose?



Euri10's TD converter

Hand number: 9173777-1453
Level: $.25/$.50
Players:
BB($0) seat 0
UTG($16) seat 1
MP($27) seat 2
Hero($31) seat 3
Button($24) seat 4
SB($15) seat 5

Button at seat 4

UTG posts. MP posts.

Hand: 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Round 1(0.75BB)

Hero calls. Button folds. UTG calls. MP checks. UTG takes 2. MP takes 3. Hero takes 2.

Hand: 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Round 2(1.75BB)

UTG bets. MP folds. Hero raises. UTG calls. UTG takes 1. Hero takes 1.

Hand: 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Round 3(3.75BB)

UTG checks. Hero bets. UTG calls. UTG takes 1. Hero stands pat.

Hand: 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Round 4(5.75BB)

UTG bets. Hero calls.

Showdown:
<font color="white">UTG shows 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Hero mucks T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]</font>

[timprov]

Again, raise the first round. Otherwise fine.

[MarkGritter]

Raise predraw. In addition to your 257 draw, which is good, the paired 7 means everybody's else's hand is likely to be a little weaker.

2nd round raise is good.

Standing pat is OK. I would probably pay off here, too, but I'm trying to find places to avoid doing so. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Knowing your opponent helps, does he ever bluff or bet a worse hand here?

I wouldn't call with a J, think hard with a T, and usually call with a 9.

[fnord_too]

Raise pre flop*. Only call on the end if you know he will make a play at the pot on a busted draw with a reasonable frequency (or is crazy and will draw one to a T or J here).

This brings up a good question, what is a reasonable frequency? he had 4-5 ranks he could hit to beat you (in all likelyhood). Lets say he had ~13 outs, stub is in the low 30's in count. So he has about a 40% chance of hitting. Lets say he bets about half of those, so there is a 20% chance he hits and bets, 20% chance he hits and check calls (or rarely check raises). (the action is hard to follow here, how is UTG calling after hero calls?) I think you are getting 6.5 : 1 here (Euri, it looks like the conver is only quartering the number of SB instead of halving them to get the pot size).

Where was I? Oh, ~6.5:1. So, call B the bluff frequency when he misses. That means the conditional probability of him bluffing is (0.6B)/(0.6B + 0.2). This must be greater than 1/7.5 to make calling profitable, so solving for the break even point we get:
7.5*0.6B = 0.6B+.2 =&gt; 3.9B = .2 so B needs to be just over 5%.

To see if this makes sense, lets say he bluffs 5% of the time he misses, your EV will be:
0.2*(-1) + (0.6)(0.05)(6.5) = -.005BB.

Wow, that is a lot lower than I thought. If he will bluff more than 5% of the time he misses, given that he only bets half the hands he catches that beat you and he has about a 40% chance of improving to beat you, calling is correct here.


*I am not positive of the action in this hand, the converter makes things a little confusing here.

[Soviet Exile]

Thanks for running the numbers on the river call. I was a little surprised that you and mark didn't think it was an autocall. In the tougher games, you just have to call there.

[fnord_too]

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for running the numbers on the river call. I was a little surprised that you and mark didn't think it was an autocall. In the tougher games, you just have to call there.

[/ QUOTE ]

In the games I've played it is an autocall against just about everyone, in the .5/1 I have no idea. Some people just wont fire into a pat hand if they miss. I was surprised to see that how infrequently they need to try to bluff to make calling profitable.

Edit - occasionally I will fold here, too, especiailly if I think villain has moved away from ever bluffing because he knows I will always call. It nudges them back to bluffing, which is fine since I hate folding on the river with a made hand, and it can really irk someone (even tilt them) when they catch a miricle card and don't get paid off by the guy who snapped off their bluff with A high.

[Aicirt]

[ QUOTE ]
Wow, that is a lot lower than I thought. If he will bluff more than 5% of the time he misses, given that he only bets half the hands he catches that beat you and he has about a 40% chance of improving to beat you, calling is correct here.

[/ QUOTE ]

So assuming Harrington is correct when all players bluff at least 10% of the time (and I would assume this is especially true at .25/.50) then I should be calling here every single time regardless of my opponent?

Interesting. Think that the 10% applies to all TD players?

[fnord_too]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Wow, that is a lot lower than I thought. If he will bluff more than 5% of the time he misses, given that he only bets half the hands he catches that beat you and he has about a 40% chance of improving to beat you, calling is correct here.

[/ QUOTE ]

So assuming Harrington is correct when all players bluff at least 10% of the time (and I would assume this is especially true at .25/.50) then I should be calling here every single time regardless of my opponent?

Interesting. Think that the 10% applies to all TD players?

[/ QUOTE ]

Be careful, harrington is talking about big bets in NL tournies. You should be able to figure out is someone ever bluffs in this spot pretty easy. If you don't know, by all means call here and get your first data point on how he plays this situation. At the higher level games, this is an easy call against most players, but some players have zero creativity, and will never bluff in this spot.