September goals/results and new goals for October

October goal: get used to 4-tabling

[Ixnert]

My goals for September were:

-- to play like 500 (missed -- took some time off from SNGs to play cash games and made more money at it than I likely would have from the SNGs -- only played about 120)

-- with better stats than the previous month (partially hit; got a higher ITM this time (42%) with a lower ROI (about 9%, I think), because my 1/2/3 distribution was something crazy like 6/21/15)

-- buy a 20" flat-panel (got this one early in the month, very much enjoying my Samsung 204T, thanks [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] )

-- move up from 4-tabling to something more (sort of hit; got another account set up with rakeback and have done some 6-tabling, still more comfortable at 4 but getting there)

-- move up semi-permanently to 33s (hit; every one of my September tournaments was 33 or higher).

September SNG results: +$300 or so.
September cash results: +$650 (in fewer hours).

Plus rakeback for a total of $1100 or so.

October goals:

-- Become more comfortable with >4 tables at once.
-- Try to figure out if my funky finish distribution in September is anything to worry about, if I have perhaps become a pussy.
-- Try to get back predominantly into SNGs (I find SNGs more fun even if they do end up being less profitable for me).

Oh, and making a bunch of money would be nice.

[Lucid1]

I just moved up to the 55s, and I want to determine my ROI as quickly as possible.

I'm planning on going "all-in" pokerwise this month, and my goal for October is to play 2000 50+5's.

I'll post my stats when it's over.

I'm aiming for about 10% ROI, but who knows...

[IdiotVig]

My goal for October is the same as it was for September: Pay attention to the little voice in the back of your head.

Hopefully I'll get it right this time around.

[sofere]

Goals for September:

Get off my August losing streak and work my way back up to 33s - Achieved

October Goals
Sustain my unsustainable September Stats (45%+ ROI in the 22s and 33s over 150-200 games)

Plus some other crap that nobody cares about like studying for CFA and writing MBA apps.

I'm not result-oriented so I always look for how I can play better. This 'goal' isn't an expectation. It's something that will tell me if I'm going in the right direction.

I think you're misunderstanding me here. Why set my goal to 18% or something when over the short run, I could very well get that high with pure dumb luck and doing nothing right? Theoretically, I can get 100% with pure dumb luck too but you'd need a whole lot more luck if you have no skill in either case.

A goal over a year should be sustainable, a goal over a month should not. A great player's good month is 30%, but it takes a bad player's ridiculous month to get 30%.

Edit: Today and yesterday, I've had 3 games where the other guy hit a 2-outer and 2 games where the other guy hit a 6-outer, both on the river when I shoved the chips in on the turn. So this may very well be the most unlucky thing that's happened to me considering the odds of that happening, but on the other hand I'm really confident about my play. This is why I really believe you shouldn't think of goals as something to achieve in poker. It should be something that'll come to you when you do the right thing. 30% is hard to get unless you do the right thing, whether you're lucky or not.

[splashpot]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not result-oriented so I always look for how I can play better. This 'goal' isn't an expectation. It's something that will tell me if I'm going in the right direction.

I think you're misunderstanding me here. Why set my goal to 18% or something when over the short run, I could very well get that high with pure dumb luck and doing nothing right? Theoretically, I can get 100% with pure dumb luck too but you'd need a whole lot more luck if you have no skill in either case.

[/ QUOTE ]
Theoretically, you can NEVER tell if your results are pure luck or if they are skill. You ask "why set your goal to 18% when that could end up being dumb luck?" Well, why set it to 30%? Why not to 40% or 80%? IT IS POSSIBLE that you hit 80% over a month so why not make that your goal?

[ QUOTE ]
A goal over a year should be sustainable, a goal over a month should not.

[/ QUOTE ]
Why? This makes no sense. What is the point of setting a short term goal that you are most unlikely to reach?

[ QUOTE ]
Edit: Today and yesterday, I've had 3 games where the other guy hit a 2-outer and 2 games where the other guy hit a 6-outer, both on the river when I shoved the chips in on the turn. So this may very well be the most unlucky thing that's happened to me considering the odds of that happening, but on the other hand I'm really confident about my play.

[/ QUOTE ]
That isn't even all that bad. Stuff like that happens all the time. I'm surprised that this stands out to you as unusual.

[ QUOTE ]
This is why I really believe you shouldn't think of goals as something to achieve in poker. It should be something that'll come to you when you do the right thing. 30% is hard to get unless you do the right thing, whether you're lucky or not.

[/ QUOTE ]
Well I finally agree with one thing you said here. You "real goal" should be to make the correct play every time. However, should you achieve this ultimate goal, you will still not reach 30% unless you get lucky(I have no evidence for this aside from what people have said on this board). This is why I have assumed that you included "getting lucky" in your original goal. Becuase it is unachievable without getting lucky. In other words, you MUST GET LUCKY to achieve this goal. Even if you achieve the holy grail of goals(making every correct move).

[FlyingSumo]

[ QUOTE ]
October sng-goal :

4-tabling 500 sngs.
Starting at $20+2 with 800$ roll.
cashing out $5000 at end of month.

[/ QUOTE ]

Cashed out after PartyPoker changed.

Reason : A mix of
1) bad run at MTT's at Stars (-->frustration when losing big pots in tourneys).
2) PartyPoker changed.
3) Good run at Cryptologic limit-tables.

Well, if you understand the most important part of my post then I'm sure I can convince you on the rest of it.

You ask "Why set a short-term goal that you are most unlikely to reach?" I ask you, why set a short-term goal that you can achieve easily and without skill? Does meeting your goal of 18% ROI over a month tell you absolutely anything? It shouldn't. You could be a slightly lucky winning player, very lucky break-even player, or extremely lucky losing player. Does meeting my goal of 30% ROI over a month tell me anything? Either I'm really, really, really lucky or I'm at least doing something right. There's just a higher chance of me being a winning player if I hit 30%.

An achievable goal in the long run makes perfect sense because variance plays a much smaller role. I honestly don't make short-term goals that I expect to reach because there's no point whatsoever. A goal that has high standards in the short run can give you some meaning, although still nearly pointless.

My bad-beat run for that day was because I only played 6 tournaments that day, and if you add up those chances you'd be pretty amazed at the odds of that happening. It also shows how little short-term goals mean, and you know it too since you said it happens 'all the time'. When things like this happen all the time, what purpose is there in making a rational short-term goal? I admit that there's not much merit to my rather irrational short-term goal, but there's still more merit to it than the rational approach.

[splashpot]

Why choose 30%? Why not 40%? 50%? 200%? Luck is not something you can measure. At least not easily. Let's say I set my goal at 18% ROI. If I achieve it, was it luck? Of course it could have been. There is a certain likelyhood that my success was luck. You set your goal to 30%. If you achieve it, there is a huge, enormous, almost sure likelyhood that your success was due to luck. The best way to set a goal is to pick a number that both challenges your limits and minimizes the likelyhood of luck.