King high against rock with high wtsd%

thesharpie · #1 09-27-2005, 10:35 AM

BB is LPP, CO is a 16/4/0.4 rock with 45% went to showdown over 90 hands. Anyone give up sooner?

Cryptologic £3.00/£6.00 Hold'em (9 handed)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
Hero raises, 4 folds, CO calls, 2 folds, BB calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, CO calls, BB folds.

Turn: (4.25 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, CO calls.

River: (6.25 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets...

#2 09-27-2005, 11:19 AM

[ QUOTE ]
BB is LPP, CO is a 16/4/0.4 rock with 45% went to showdown over 90 hands. Anyone give up sooner?

Cryptologic £3.00/£6.00 Hold'em (9 handed)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
Hero raises, 4 folds, CO calls, 2 folds, BB calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, CO calls, BB folds.

Turn: (4.25 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, CO calls.

River: (6.25 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets...

[/ QUOTE ]
PREFLOP: Close enough between raising or calling that its not worth discussing. FLOP: Good bet. With just two opponents on a board that likely missed them you should bet and keep the pressure on them. TURN: Good bet. With only one player standing between you and the pot you must bet to give yourself the best chance to take this down right now. River: This really is the only debatable part of your hand. Once the tight player calls the turn on this drawless board, he is not going to fold the river for one more bet. Think about it, what hand do you see the tight player calling the turn with and then folding the river on this board. And the river was a significant card also, with the 3 hitting that means if by some chance your opponent was on a wheel draw he has now hit either a straight or a pair and will call. So there is no reason to bet the river, just check and fold. Before you bluff the river try to put your opponent on a range of hands he may fold for one more river bet, if you cant think of any then the best move is to check and give up even when all you have is 4 high or something.

Fat Nicky · #3 09-27-2005, 11:20 AM

[ QUOTE ]
45% went to showdown over 90 hands

[/ QUOTE ]

i'm not betting the river against someone with these stats, especially when there are really no draws on the board.

thesharpie · #4 09-27-2005, 11:50 AM

I actually thought the river was the easiest part and should be bet since he could easily be calling up to this point with something like AK and would fold for 1 more.

Is the flop really that good? Against these guys I have pretty much no folding equity unless I fire another bet on the turn, so the best I can hope for on the flop is what happened, the LPP got out the way and I'm putting in 3SB to win 7.5SB. It gets worse if I fire another barrel on the river, even though I think I should once I get there, since I'm putting 5SB to win 9.5SB.

Thoughts? Anyone agree with me on the river bet?

@bsolute_luck · #5 09-27-2005, 12:25 PM

that's what i was thinking: will you get A-high to fold here with your bet. answer how sure you are of that and there ya go. (FWIW: i would have given it a shot against a rock).

speirs · #6 09-27-2005, 12:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I actually thought the river was the easiest part and should be bet since he could easily be calling up to this point with something like AK and would fold for 1 more.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree. When you put him on something like AK I would fire another one.

BigBrother · #7 09-27-2005, 12:31 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone agree with me on the river bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not quite sure what your read is telling you about this player, but if he's such a rock that goes completely limp post-flop he is most likely calling you down with AK, AQ, or a middle pair, and that's about all I'd see a 16/4 cold calling you with preflop (Rock's don't get to be 16/4's by cold calling A5s into H/u or 3-way pots).

90 hands does not seem like enough of a sample size to put much value in the 45% wtsd number, since he's got such a low vpip that he's probably only seen about 20 flops that you know of. Combined with the low 0.4 AF, the numbers say he's not folding for one more on the river. So to think he'd fold I would need to have seen him take other hands to the river then fold on the end.

The numbers (low AF, high wtsd) say he just might check through a pair on the end, so you are likely to gain free information to help better your read on this rock.

We'd like to win those 6.25 BB's here, but from the read you've given it does not seem likely, and by jamming that last bet on the end we may be encouraging others at the table to call down later in similar situations. Fold equity is a good thing to have.

@bsolute_luck · #8 09-27-2005, 12:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
by jamming that last bet on the end we may be encouraging others at the table to call down later in similar situations.

[/ QUOTE ] we want them to. we should consider this last bet as an investment for long term profits at this table [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

thesharpie · #9 09-27-2005, 12:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
by jamming that last bet on the end we may be encouraging others at the table to call down later in similar situations.

[/ QUOTE ] we want them to. we should consider this last bet as an investment for long term profits at this table [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly. I hardly ever bluff bet on the river so I gain from them calling off my value bets more often.

thesharpie · #10 09-27-2005, 12:55 PM

He needs to fold 16% of the time on the river to break even.

Let's look at some hands he could hold, first ones that are never folding:

QQ - 1
JJ - 6
TT - 6

Ones he might fold:

AK - 12
AQ - 12

He needs to fold ~25% with AK or AQ to break even. Correct me if I'm wrong.