Tough River decision: Did I leave him with too much implied odds?

[The_Curtain]

Villain is 20/7/2.2 over 80 hands. Villain is decent player who hasn't done anything too out of line.

I am a limit player and was mixing it up the other night with a little no limit (which we play in our home game)

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, 1$ BB (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is on the button with J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img],9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

<font color="red"> MP2 raises to $2 </font>, CO calls, Hero calls $2, SB Folds, Villain (BB) calls $1.

<font color="blue"> MP2 was a little loose post-flop, so I called in position, figuring I could extract if the flop came down good. </font>

Flop: ($8.50) 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players) <font color="red"> Villain bets $6 </font>, MP2 Folds, CO folds, Hero calls.

<font color="blue"> A gutshot to the nuts, flush draw and two questionable overs. Pot odds aren't great (2.5-1), but I thought my implied odds made it worthwhile to see the turn. Might be a questionable call. </font>

Turn: ($20.50) 10 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
<font color="red"> Villain bets $15, Hero Raises to $45 </font>, Villain calls.

<font color="blue"> Yes! I have the nuts, now time to extract. Villain still likes his hand, so with $35 in the pot I was thinking I wanted to extract and deter him to chase a draw to the river, so I bet about the pot. Is this a good size bet? </font>

River: ($110.50) 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
<font color="red"> Villain bets all-in $60.33 </font>, Hero?

<font color="blue"> ??? I hit the flush, but was he chasing the whole time with a higher flush draw? He is aggressive, so he could of been semi-bluffing the whole time, but then I would of thought he would of folded to my turn raise. Seems a little out of line for him. Seems like a big lay down, but I don't think he would bluff after I put in a big raise on the turn. What should I do? </font>

Comments on all streets welcome.

[DJ Sensei]

Call the river. Rest of hand looks good. When you raise the turn, he can get the impression that you do not have a flush draw (unless you have AT[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or KT[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]). I expect to be shown an overpair or set here most of the time, and sometimes AK/AQ[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. You'll defitely win this pot at least half the time, so a call is +EV.

I would call. Sometimes you may find yourself here against a higher flush, but very often he will be bluffing the river, putting you on a set/2 pairs/straight

[tripp0807]

[ QUOTE ]
Call the river. Rest of hand looks good. When you raise the turn, he can get the impression that you do not have a flush draw (unless you have AT[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or KT[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]). I expect to be shown an overpair or set here most of the time, and sometimes AK/AQ[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. You'll defitely win this pot at least half the time, so a call is +EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was about to call this chip spewing, but then I thought about it...and this is a very well thought out post. I agree. Call and reload if you're down. The other streets are fine, but I think I would have raised a little more on the turn, say to about ~50-55 and hope he pushed.

[ajmargarine]

Easy call. It's not likely he puts you on a flush or a straight. He's probably sitting on a set. nh, well played.

And to answer the thread title's question: If he has a better flush draw than you, he has 7 outs to hit it on the river, so he's 6:1 to hit. He has to call $30, meaning he needs to make $180 off that call to make it worthwhile...$80 in the pot at the time and he only has $60 left behind, so, no, he had no implied odds to call. I always screw up this math so someone correct me if i am wrong.

[gol4pro]

If you think this is a tough river decision.... you re-define the term nit.

[subzero]

You say he's a decent player, but what's with the min-raise preflop? If he had a set, I think he would have 3-bet all-in on the turn. The way the hand played out, it seems like he was drawing to a flush (AT[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] maybe). He may also think you were trying to protect against a flush. You didn't provide stack sizes, but I'm guessing you put in over 1/3 of your stack. I think you're behind, but you may be pot-committed.