River decision with top two pair.

[PokerSparky]

MP2 was a 16/10/0.8. BB was a maniac (80/16/1.7). I put MP2 on a flush draw early on, but do I trust my read and fold the river in this large pot?

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. MP3 posts a blind of $2.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls, MP3 (poster) checks, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, MP3 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, UTG+1 folds, MP2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, BB calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: (11.25 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB calls, MP2 calls.

River: (17.25 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, HERO?

Final Pot: 22.25 BB

[istewart]

I think you need to fold. His play is nearly perfectly in sync with a flush draw and I doubt someone of his passive nature is raising this river with A4 or something.

Although, there aren't that many flush draws he can have given that JT makes a straight on the turn and his VP$IP is 16. Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] I guess.

[PokerSparky]

The one thing that passed through my head during the hand was the "When you don't want overcalls" section of SSHE. If MP2 was a thinker, he may believe that he has BB beat, but not me and raise to get me to fold the best hand. Perhaps this is giving far too much credit to my opponents.

[istewart]

I think it is giving a little too much credit, but you do bring up an interesting point.