PP50NL 6-max, AJ, and variance

bingledork · #1 08-04-2005, 12:44 PM

Two hands for review. Both are PP50NL 6-max AJ hands. I've found my decisions a lot of the time are based on my
risk-averse approach to poker. I only have a small sample size (2000 hands) but my SD/100 is at 30, which is much lower than other
respected posters on here. So I'm wondering if I'm giving money away. Anyway here are two hands that might shed some light on this.

Hand #1
Villian is unknown.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 max, 6 handed) converter
UTG ($63.64)
MP ($147.80)
CO ($50.05)
Hero ($53.70)
SB ($10.65)
BB ($57.05)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
UTG calls $0.50, 2 folds, Hero raises to $2, 2 folds, UTG calls $1.50.

Flop: ($4.75) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets $2, Hero calls $2.

Turn: ($8.75) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $5, UTG raises to $10, Hero calls $5.

River: ($28.75) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets $15, Hero calls $15.

My thoughts: With the limp-call preflop, the lead into me on the flop, and the check-raise on the turn, he either had a set/2pair or he's a donk.
When the J hit the river, I was beating his 2-pair and donkified Ax hands, but still losing to the set.
I debated if I should put him all-in on the river (another $21) or just call. Ultimately I just called because I either (a) lost enough to his set, or (b) won enough with AJ.
Which is to say I'm variance-averse. Thoughts?

Hand #2
Villian is loose/decent with VPIP around 40 and PFR 8. I've only seen him showdown one hand that he raised preflop, which was AK.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 max, 6 handed) converter

UTG ($63.64)
MP ($147.80)
CO ($50.05)
Hero ($53.70)
SB ($10.65)
BB ($57.05)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
2 folds, CO raises to $1.75, Hero calls $1.75, 2 folds.

Flop: ($4.25) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
CO bets $5, Hero folds.

I nearly folded preflop and normally would, but I was on the button. Villian was decent, so I put his range at JT+ for the preflop raise.
On the flop, however, the $5 bet into the $4.25 scared me. I've caught myself with a tell where I make just-bigger-than-pot bets on the flop when I'm looking to win big,
and I've been consciously always just-under-betting the pot lately.
If villian had bet $4 here, I would have called, but again I'm variance-averse and had a bad feeling. Thoughts?

foldem · #2 08-04-2005, 01:28 PM

Why are you folding TPTK on the flop to a continuation bet? Your tell seems foolish. Hint, sometimes people overbet the pot when they want you to fold.

Edit: you should probably drop down to NL 25 if you are worried about losing hand #1 and folding hand #2.

BirdieLongSocks · #3 08-04-2005, 01:32 PM

Hand 1: I dont think that villian is leading this flop with anything you beat except maybee a flushdraw. Likly holdings are A2s/A5s/22/55. I probobly fold this flop against a unknown.

Hand 2: What range of hands do you put him on? I call this raising/ betting a non heart turn.

djoyce003 · #4 08-04-2005, 01:46 PM

I'd raise the flop in hand 1. It looks like someone with a flush draw that wants to price themselves in. If he plays back at you then you have a decision to make. His turn checkraise is weird..i'm almost positive you are behind a set here. If you raised preflop he could think you have AK and just hit two pair so you'll bet and he can checkraise with a set...thats what it looks like to me. If I have a read on villain as laggy or maniacal, I call down like you did. If he's a calling station or rock, i'm folding.

Hand 2 - if you call the preflop raise and flop top pair top kicker how can you fold...if you were going to fold a jack high flop you should have folded preflop. That $5 bet looks like someone who wants you to fold. I think most of the time here you have opponent drawing to 3 outs because you probably share the ace. I'd smooth call the flop bet and see what he does on the turn.

JustToast · #5 08-04-2005, 01:50 PM

Hand 1:
I'd raise the flop to $6 or so and reconsider where i'm at if he 3-bets or leads the turn.

Hand 2:
Raise the flop, you have TPTK.

EDIT: On second thought, I like DJoyces's line of calling the flop and watching the turn bet. Don't fold.

I might suggest you drop to NL25 until you're more comfortable with the amount of money coming in and out, or buy-in short to limit your risk at NL50. Playing scared == giving away money if you get just one person at the table who recognizes you wont call an overbet no matter your holding.

IamLeach · #6 08-04-2005, 02:08 PM

Hand 1: This seems very much like you are beat here. The check raise would have been where I would have folded. Of course this is read dependant. Villian is playing as if no card that hits really matters here. He underbets...safe turn....check-raise. Seems like set or maybe wheel to me.

Hand 2: This looks like a bet that is meant to drive you out. I would call here and see what villian does on the turn. I can see folding to an ace here but not the jack.

bingledork · #7 08-04-2005, 02:13 PM

Some more comments:

Hand #1:
I have had a lot of success with the walk-the-dog approach on these types of hands, letting the villian hang himself with a weaker ace. I think raising the flop may be marginally better than calling, but I'm not convinced. His $2 bet was exactly on my call/raise threshold.

I am more interested if anybody pushes on the river....

Hand #2:
I appreciate the "go back to $25" thoughts. I posted this hand because I've never done this before and obviously by itself it looks stupid. It stands in stark contrast to Hand #1 where I called down an opponent who was representing a big hand.

I hadn't seen villian in this hand over-bet the flop before, so it confused me. I understand that players often do this to mean "go away" but I know personally I do it when I have a big hand. I guess my question is which is more likely the case?

ajmargarine · #8 08-04-2005, 02:19 PM

Hand #1 plays better if you raise on the flop. You made a PFR, so go ahead and raise him. He'll put you on AK or a big A, and then if he checkraises you on the turn you know that you are probably beat by a set with an AK on the board.

Hand #2, call his flop bet, and see what develops. Calling down here (within reason) is +EV at these stakes, IMO.

#9 08-04-2005, 05:30 PM

I'm new and risk averse, too, so I think I would have played the first hand the same.

Hand two, villain's bet looks like top pair giving bad odds to a flush draw, so with AJ I would assume I was ahead here.