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#1
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QTd in BB
Button is 15/5
CO is 43/0 PokerStars 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (7 handed) converter Preflop: Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls, CO calls, Button calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero checks. Flop: (4.40 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP2 calls, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, Hero calls, MP2 calls, CO calls. Turn: (6.20 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button 3-bets</font>, Hero ??? what do you guys think? |
#2
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Re: QTd in BB
I'd cap it. Nobody gets credit for a better flush yet, especially since the turn also completes an OESD.
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#3
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Re: QTd in BB
call and check call the river.
there aren't any flush hands that button can have here that we beat. he most likely wouldn't limp J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9:diamond or worse being 15% vpip, and you have the Q and T. the possible flush hands he has now are A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (he'd raise the AKs). hope he has a set. at first i wanted to call here, see if CO caps and if so check call the river. if CO didn't cap i would bet the river to trap him between, but looking at your hole cards, we're not looking too hot here. |
#4
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Re: QTd in BB
But there's 6 combos of 77, and 3x3 of each of the set possibilities for a total of 15 hands we beat versus the two flush combos that we lose to. We'd need to discount the losing combinations very heavily (like by 90%) to be behind his average range, would we not?
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#5
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Re: QTd in BB
[ QUOTE ]
But there's 6 combos of 77, and 3x3 of each of the set possibilities for a total of 15 hands we beat versus the two flush combos that we lose to. We'd need to discount the losing combinations very heavily (like by 90%) to be behind his average range, would we not? [/ QUOTE ] we really don't have a read on how he plays postflop, but the average tight passive 15/5 guy is going to have a very hard time 3-betting the turn with any set on this turn. that leaves the 6 combos of 77. do i think he 3-bets them here? not very often. by capping we also run the risk of folding the other dude. |
#6
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Re: QTd in BB
[ QUOTE ]
by capping we also run the risk of folding the other dude. [/ QUOTE ] I think this is the best reason for not capping the turn right here. If we raise and we're ahead we only capture 1 bet here by raising if CO folds, and maybe 1 or two more on the river. And if we're behind we lose more bets. If we don't raise and CO calls(if we're ahead), we gain 1 bet here on the turn and potentially 2-4 more bets on the river if CO decides to call. We lose the same amount(unless we listen to Eskimo and cap the river [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]) If CO stays around wouldn't it be +EV to bet this river for value and call a raise? |
#7
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Re: QTd in BB
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] by capping we also run the risk of folding the other dude. [/ QUOTE ] I think this is the best reason for not capping the turn right here. If we raise and we're ahead we only capture 1 bet here by raising if CO folds, and maybe 1 or two more on the river. And if we're behind we lose more bets. If we don't raise and CO calls(if we're ahead), we gain 1 bet here on the turn and potentially 2-4 more bets on the river if CO decides to call. We lose the same amount(unless we listen to Eskimo and cap the river [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]) [/ QUOTE ] I'm sort of confused as to what all of this ends up meaning. What's your plan for the river if: 1) CO caps after we call the 3-bet by button on the turn 2) CO folds after we call the 3-bet by button on the turn 3) CO calls after we call the 3-bet by button on the turn Assume a non-diamond river in all three cases. I am fairly convinced that a check-call is correct in all scenarios. I don't think we wlll have good enough pot odds to show our hand down if we face more than two bets after we check in scenario 1). I don't think we want to blow the CO out of the pot with a river bet or a CR in scenario 3, and I'm not convinced we are ahead here enough to bet the river heads up against the button in scenario 2. |
#8
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Re: QTd in BB
Does everyone like leading the flop? I realize we have an equity edge and want to build a pot, but it would suck if MP2 raised, and would it be so bad to try and hit our flush for free? I also don't think we're taking this down right now on a coordinated board against 3 limpers.
I cap the turn. |
#9
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Re: QTd in BB
Grunch:
Pre-flop: bet Flop: good Turn: call 3-bet |
#10
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Re: QTd in BB
Cap and cap the river if the board doesnt pair up
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