For Newbies – Improve your middle play – Hand Lesson 1

[KenProspero]

I don't know what Chuck did, but I did the following:

1. I calculated my expectation of folding (got 8.5%, but may have made an error here).

2. I assumed that I steal the blinds (got about 10.5% equity)

3. I assumed that one person calls my all in. (17.7% if I win, 0% if I lose -- assumed it to be a coin flip, which gives me about 8.6% equity overall.)

Overall, I came to the conclusion it's a slight winner because of folding equity, but a pretty close call.

[david050173]

[ QUOTE ]
Let me break the cycle.

I LIMP.

It's pretty likely that BB will toss his remaining 50-ish chips in when the action gets to him. Now, I can thunder back over this for a push.

This allows me to possibly get some dead money into the pot if CO/Button/SB should limp, and then have to fold when i price them out of the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

What if one of them pushes or makes a standard raise? You are building a big pot when you have a decent hand but you are adding a bunch of variance. With AA, KK, or even QQ I can see the limp reraise in attempt to get lots of chips. With TTs I am happy to just take the blinds.

[curtains]

Yeah sit and gos really arent that complicated. Anyone who does lots of math and ICM calculations for something like this, are going about learning how to play the wrong way. Sometimes it makes sense to make such lengthy calculations, but the large majority of the time it doesn't.

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know what Chuck did, but I did the following:

1. I calculated my expectation of folding (got 8.5%, but may have made an error here).

2. I assumed that I steal the blinds (got about 10.5% equity)

3. I assumed that one person calls my all in. (17.7% if I win, 0% if I lose -- assumed it to be a coin flip, which gives me about 8.6% equity overall.)

Overall, I came to the conclusion it's a slight winner because of folding equity, but a pretty close call.



[/ QUOTE ]

These may not be the ideal assumptions for this situation, as you're very unlikely to take the pot without a showdown, and more likely than usual to get called in two places (since the BB will almost always call even when one of the other 3 players also calls/raises).

[KenProspero]

I hear you. I certainly can't play with the ICM and keep up with the flow of the game. Also, ICM assumes all players at the table are equal, which I never assume, so it's percentages are thrown off.

What I found interesting about this exercise, is that common sense would tell most of us that there is a clear-cut answer here, while math says it's a lot closer than it looks.

As to reliance on math in general -- well, My daddy once told me 'Son, never draw to an inside straight', I think we'd all agree that with about 12-1 pot odds, daddy's probably wrong.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
ICM and FE are borderline, not the hand.

This is also the reason why I think limping is a mistake. I'm not interested in a push by the bigstack behind me.

[/ QUOTE ]

You aren't taking into account the value of doubling up and having some REAL FE. Also, even just winning showdown with the small stack provides extra room for FE.

If you don't push here, you won't be until you're hit by the blinds again and by then it may be too late.

When are the blinds going up? If they're going to smack you with 200/100 then you *have* to push IMHO. Otherwise, I still think you need to push.

There is more FE here than you realize (but admittedly not much).

Yugoslav

[KenProspero]

Actually, BB will probably call all the time given his chip position.

However, I think Chuck's analysis is such that BB calling is a bad event for you -- lowers' your expectation overall (though only marginally).

Under any of these scenarios, there isn't much of a gain in your expected win share of the pot pool.

-------

One thing that wasn't considered.

If someone does call me, and I win, I'm right back into the game. If they win, I lose, but have lost quickly -- and I can use this time to enter another SNG. At this stage in the game, a close call may be worth taking for this reason alone.

[11t]

The only reasons one might fold here is you are going to be called by the BB, unless he is terrible, and he could potentially suck out vs your pair. If this happens you will be at 263 and will most likely go out of the tournament.

Also the big stack could call your push with a less than premium hand and suck out.

If it is folded to you though pushing is your best option, you will basically double up if the BB calls and you will win that a vast majority of the time. If somebody wakes up to a higher PP then so be it. If the button calls with a-x and spikes an ace then so be it. If you do this a million times you will be doing much better than the few times you walk into larger pairs or get sucked out on by face cards.

[parappa]

The ICM calcs look fine, and they show what $EV you will have in each situation. However, the calcs themselves have to be discounted by the possibility of each outcome occurring, and it the problem of estimating and making assumptions about the possibility of each outcome requires, in essence, the same sort of judgment about what calling ranges your opponents have, how often they'll call, whether the bb will throw his last 47(!) chips in, etc., that it becomes pretty indistinguishable from the way you'd analyse a hand without recourse to the ICM, imho. On the SB and, to a lesser extent, on the button or in the CO, you can make some assumptions, but in MP in an 8-handed game, you can't simply whip out the ICM and expect any insight from it. There's not that much, if any difference between CEV and $EV in this situation, and the judgement call "I've got TT with 6xbb in MP of an unopened pot 8-handed and nowhere near the bubble" is a pretty clear push unless you can come up with a good reason for why it's not.

[Daliman]

Folding here would be moronic, period. Best option is pushing. To those of you that say a limp/reraise of the inevitable BB preflop push to trap a few more chips, I'd say that's fine too, but has more variance; Likely similar EV either way, except for one small thing; The BB only has 47 more chips over the 100 BB, therefore you can only call him, not reraise, since he has less than 1/2 the bet.

But this really isn't much of a question. Even THINKING about folding here is ludicrous. With 8 left, not alot of decisions you make will be more than a couple of % difference.