AJs, party 5/10

[Guy McSucker]

[ QUOTE ]

Do you really think MP is betting his draw here enough to make a turn raise profitable? That board and the 4 people in the pot make this seem like a bad spot to bet a draw hoping to win it there.


[/ QUOTE ]

Our read is that MP is a lunatic who will bet for no good reason and SB is a TAG who 3-bet a non-steal raise preflop and has now started checking. SB is scared or slowplaying, and a double slowplay is rare, so we can put him on a missed hand like AJ or an underpair. A raise will get rid of him, who is probably beating us or at least tied with us, and MP could have anything or nothing, so on balance a raise is probably okay against his hand too. Balance all this against the pot odds and a raise looks very attractive.

Guy.

[Chobohoya]

[ QUOTE ]
So you don't have to make a turn call with sketchy odds. Also DO NOT CAP pf vs this guy with AJ. Bad idea. He is out of position so I think you are drawing to an ace or less about 90% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

No one else has commented on the pf cap yet, but I think it was one of the things I did right in the hand. My idea capping here preflop was basically "my cards are really high, pretty connected, and sooted, and 2/3 of my opponents are playing nearly any two cards." Any one else think this is dumb? Is it good?

[mperich]

I'm talking about betting the flop so you can take a free card on the turn. Which is a much MUCH better line than check behind on the flop after you capped then raise the turn.

[Chobohoya]

[ QUOTE ]
Our read is that MP is a lunatic who will bet for no good reason and SB is a TAG who 3-bet a non-steal raise preflop and has now started checking. SB is scared or slowplaying, and a double slowplay is rare, so we can put him on a missed hand like AJ or an underpair. A raise will get rid of him, who is probably beating us or at least tied with us, and MP could have anything or nothing, so on balance a raise is probably okay against his hand too. Balance all this against the pot odds and a raise looks very attractive.

Guy.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly. I screwed this up pretty badly.

[drudman]

I'm still not sure I buy into this completely yet... how do you intend on winning the hand, even if you raise? I assume not by winning a showdown. But do you really think you can get the entire field out by then? Or hit your ten or ace (but not of clubs)?

I'm still not convinced that this is not a "I missed and the board is scary" folding situation.

[Jonny]

I think betting the flop is horrid now. You are very likely to get c/r'ed by a decent king. I'd take the free card on the flop. I think I like a turn raise here.

[Jdanz]

i buy this until convinced otherwise.

[sam h]

[ QUOTE ]
Please explain why raising it on the turn is preferable to folding?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because a raise here after the preflop action will look like a total monster to many players and is very likely to get you heads up with the clown who is betting. The pot is big, you probably have 7 outs even when behind, and against this opponent you are likely ahead a fair amount of the time.

[mperich]

i tyhink this line sucks. if a king will checkraise the flop, no king is folding after you check the flop. a turn freecard is more valuable than a flop freecard here.

[Stormwolf]

[ QUOTE ]
I think betting the flop is horrid now. You are very likely to get c/r'ed by a decent king. I'd take the free card on the flop. I think I like a turn raise here.

[/ QUOTE ]

yes, the vast majority of the time they will be 'checking to the capper', I would take the free card everytime