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  #1  
Old 12-30-2005, 01:43 AM
UATrewqaz UATrewqaz is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Atlanta
Posts: 276
Default Re: Please analyze my play here...

Well think about it, if he has AQ or AJ he's gonna pay off your bets... so BET and make it big.

Also people like pocket pairs, even low ones. He bet out with a small pocket pair and you raised him but not much. I'm calling if I'm him every time. If he flops his set he can clean you out if you have AA/KK (once again, implied odds).

He doesn't flop his set but picks up an inside straight draw. A this point he has 6 outs to beat you. He figures that's good enough to pull the flop (cuz ur flop bet was so small) and then the turn play gave him the card to beat ya.

I also updated my original post.
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  #2  
Old 12-30-2005, 10:44 AM
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Default Re: Please analyze my play here...

I appreciate the feedback. I don't think it has anything to do with watching too much poker on TV. I couldn't imagine he had a 5 or any mid pair, considering his preflop and postflop decisions. My analysis of his hand directed my play and I was dead wrong. But he had 6 outs and I don't have a major problem showing a bit of weakness on the turn to make him think I don't have much. Unfortunately, he caught his card. But if he called a bet on the flop, why wouldn't he call one on the turn? I understand betting more would have won me the pot early, but I also wanted to maximize my winnings. Obviously, with hindsight being 20/20, I made the wrong play. But if he has AQ and makes a big bet the river b/c he thinks I'm weak, I've maxed out my profit on this hand.

None the less, I screwed up a bit - but I don't think it was quite as catastrophic as you made it out to be.
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  #3  
Old 12-30-2005, 12:56 PM
UATrewqaz UATrewqaz is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Atlanta
Posts: 276
Default Re: Please analyze my play here...

You have to think about it long run, what is the most profitable way to play this hand if you were forced to play it over and over and over again.

You have a very powerful hand and are ahead of alot of his likely holdings that he WILL you pay you off with (if he has a weaker ace, like AQ/AJ) or even if he has KK/QQ/JJ most players are too stubborn to let it go.

So the situation is fine for betting stiff and hoping he comes along, because a great deal of the time he will be putting money into the pot voluntarily.

Not every hand is meant to be played to win your opponents entire stack (although the possibility always exists, which is why NL is exciting).

You basically were counting on him to read you for weakness and then take a shot at the pot with a big bet with weaker cards.

But you need a very specific read on a player to pass up big +EV now to know he's capable and likely of doing this.

He very well might not even think about your hand, he might not be aggressive, he might not bluff period (alot of players are scared to, etc.)

Basically if you played this hand more aggressively in this exact same situation over and over you will win lots more than the tricky strategy you tried.

The guy will either have a worse ace and will probably call a big flop and turn bets ($ for u) or he has a lower pocket pair and probably folds (unless it's say QQ/JJ) then he might very well STILL call.

This situation is of course very different than if you cripple the deck. In the hand you describe AQ/AJ are very likely holdings that will pay you, if the flop comes like

AAK

then you can sandbag your AK all you want. There are no cards he could be holding that will pay you off.

Basically you slowplay when they would fold now but won't fold later. If they are gonna call now you just go ahead and bet.
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