I need a plan - AA 200NL

[pokerjoker]

if ur not willing to go to the felt then fold now. I hate this situation soo much. Once I see that minraise I usually Load GT+ in my deciding time and unless the guy is a setmining rock I call then try and get chips allin later.

[xorbie]

This is the clearest example of a fold ever, IMO. Minbet --> min 3-bet is a set or two pair roughly 100% of the time.

[Godfather80]

[ QUOTE ]
SB has just sat down and this is his second hand so I have no read on him at all.

Whats my plan here?

Seat 1: UTG ($200.75 in chips)
Seat 2: CO ($255.50 in chips)
Seat 4: BTN ($81.75 in chips)
Seat 5: SB ($196 in chips)
Seat 6: BB ($57.88 in chips)
SB: posts small blind $1
BBs: posts big blind $2
----- HOLE CARDS -----
dealt to UTG [A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]]
UTG: raises to $7
CO: folds
BTN: calls $7
SB: calls $6
BB: folds
----- FLOP ----- [5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]]
SB: bets $2
UTG: raises to $22
BTN: folds
SB: raises to $42
UTG: ???

[/ QUOTE ]

When in this situation without reads, I'm forced to ask myself: what is my villain telling me. Well...

Preflop: he told you that he doesn't hold a premium hand, but he also doesn't hold complete trash.

Flop: when he bet $2 into a $21 pot, he told you he was an idiot (but he didn't say which kind). When he min-raised your very real raise, he's telling you that he isn't afraid of hands like the ones you are representing (AK or AA). When somebody tells me that they aren't afraid of my TPTK or overpair, I have to ask if they think I'm very weak and can find quite a bit of fold equity in me because they are an excellent and imaginative player. But, from his $2 bet, we know that your villain is not an excellent player.

Therefore, a great majority of the time, you are drawing to 2 outs after villain behaves this way. Without reads, I'm folding here.

[JudoGirl]

[ QUOTE ]

Preflop: he told you that he doesn't hold a premium hand, but he also doesn't hold complete trash...

...Flop: when he bet $2 into a $21 pot, he told you he was an idiot...

...from his $2 bet, we know that your villain is not an excellent player....


[/ QUOTE ]

While I won't disagree with your conclusion that a fold is appropriate here, it is worth pointing out that you are selectively using the info you have about opponent being an idiot. Based on the $2 bet, you conclude he is an idiot and not an excellent player, and thus he must have a good hand. But since he is an idiot, the premise that his original call means he doesn't have a trash hand goes out the window. And since he is an idiot, we can't presume that he is even thinking about your cards or what you are representing. He may simply know that he has a K with a good kicker.

That door, like Boy George, swings both ways.

[Godfather80]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Preflop: he told you that he doesn't hold a premium hand, but he also doesn't hold complete trash...

...Flop: when he bet $2 into a $21 pot, he told you he was an idiot...

...from his $2 bet, we know that your villain is not an excellent player....


[/ QUOTE ]

While I won't disagree with your conclusion that a fold is appropriate here, it is worth pointing out that you are selectively using the info you have about opponent being an idiot. Based on the $2 bet, you conclude he is an idiot and not an excellent player, and thus he must have a good hand. But since he is an idiot, the premise that his original call means he doesn't have a trash hand goes out the window. And since he is an idiot, we can't presume that he is even thinking about your cards or what you are representing. He may simply know that he has a K with a good kicker.

That door, like Boy George, swings both ways.

[/ QUOTE ]

Even idiots don't like to lose money. His flop 3-bet is his way of being tricky and saying "gotcha!"

[CryptoManiac]

Thanks for your thoughts everyone.

I folded so I don't know what he had in the end. I assumed it to be a set. I didn't play the hand very well and I did 3 bet - I put it up to $75 then folded to his all in. I think every single line suggested in this post was better than my line. Still, you live and learn eh?

[ QUOTE ]
If he is on a draw, I don't think he gets the right implied odds unless he hits his draw on the turn and you let him get you all in. Once he has misses the turn but calls your bet he has put so much money into the pot that he has made a huge mistake and cannot get enough money into the pot on the river to make up for his mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

Guy's who Minbet into a $21 pot likely don't even think about things like odds... they see a draw and it's either enough to pay to draw to or too much to pay to draw to.

And vs some of them there's no such thing as too much to pay.

[ QUOTE ]
I dont know lol

The way the flop was played was really weird.
How can afford to clown around with that tiny $2 bet like that with just a king? It really looks like he's trying to get you to raise.

This ones got me confused

[/ QUOTE ]

I had a hand exactly like this at .25/.50c 6-Max on UB this morning... Raised AQ utg while I was lagging it up and got called by the SB... this donkey who loved to min bet and min raise and wouldn't get it in without the nuts.

Flop came KQ7 and he bet 70c into a $7 pot... I called not wanting to raise it since I doubted he'd fold anything

Turn was a 5 and he bet $1.5 into a $9 pot... I called

River was another 5 and he fired full pot at me... I figured he was trying to shove me off the hand with a busted J10 straight and called... and he showed me 777 and took it.

Bad players don't make sense... it doesn't mean they don't have hands and it doesn't mean they'd even dream of folding.

[ QUOTE ]
Unless I've seen him doing this before with tpt/gk v preflop raiser I'm folding this everytime. Small lead followed by min reraise is virtually always a monster.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah its like when they minbet the flop and turn and then fullpot/push the river on a random rag... fvcking donkeys.

[J Chap]

One last small thing to consider: He just sat down, so not only do you have no reads on him, he also has no reads on you.

That, IMO, adds about 3-4 drops to the scariness of his min-raise.

He is either drunk or fearless.