I need a plan - AA 200NL

[Benholio]

The min-bet/3-bet is very often a monster. I think I might be able to find a fold on this dry board, but maybe I am weak tight. Another thing to consider is that a PFR and then a continuation bet usually represents AK, so your opponents will often play their hands as if thats what you hold. In other words, they can usually beat TPTK if they raise with an Ace or King on the flop, especially with no draws out there.

[emil3000]

Minbet three bet means he's an idiot. Seriously, very sensitive test.

[scdavis0]

Bottom line.. you ain't folding on the flop. Also, re-raising is bad against the vast majority of players (90%+).

I want you to call and then play poker on the turn (this is probably going to involve becoming more committed).

[CobraGoat]

Can someone please elaborate for us more ignorant members, why exactly we call the $2 bet here? Is this case dependent? Is it because there are no draws on the board? Trying to keep worse hands in?

This is an instance where i find myself almost always RRing here and it feels wierd but i dont know why i would be calling instead.

[beavens]

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Can someone please elaborate for us more ignorant members, why exactly we call the $2 bet here? Is this case dependent? Is it because there are no draws on the board? Trying to keep worse hands in?

This is an instance where i find myself almost always RRing here and it feels wierd but i dont know why i would be calling instead.

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i think because of the amount of the bet was so small that we're most likely facing a monster just trying to extract value

[trevor]

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With no read I count on the idiot factor.

[/ QUOTE ]

With no read I am more inclined to fold than to push.

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My advice is to try to control the pot, and just call his gay $2 bet.

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I think you sacrifice too much value here by doing this.

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Call the flop and push any non-K turn.

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This is probably the most defualt line w/ an overpair w/o reads, but this spot sucks. You are either way ahead or have 2 outs. 3-betting the flop is bad because he'll never fold a hand you beat and you make sacrifice value from AK if he can find a fold on the flop.

I dunno, call and hope he donk bets the turn = weak king and push?

[JudoGirl]

Preflop is fine...

I think your flop play could have been better.

On the flop the pot is $23 and sb bets $2 into you making the pot $25. Of course, you have to raise. But how much? The $2 bet is amateur hour poker and while it could mean he is trying to goad you into a big raise, it doesn't necessarily mean that.


What you really want to do is play basic poker and figure out where you are at, winning the most when you are ahead, but losing the least when you are beat. That requires getting money into the pot while keeping the pot manageable and making future decisions easier--all at the same time. Tough order, eh? Yeah NL is tough!

There is no flush draw and while there is a possible str8 draw on the board, it is unlikely. The bettor is probably not on a draw. He probably has a K. But he could have a set He may even have a smaller pair like QQ and be testing to see if you really have a hand (yeah, I've seen this kind of move at 200NL). Against a reasonable player 2 pair is unlikely. If he has K-any, he is drawing to 5 outs. If he has oesd, 8 outs, so at best he is 5:1 if he is drawing to beat you.

Raising to 9 gives him 4.85:1 odds.
Raising to 14 gives him 3.25:1 odds.
Raising to 22 gives him 2.35:1 odds.

As far as incorrect odds, clearly the more he'll call the better. But you have other goals. You want to keep the pot a manageable size and you want future decisions to be easier. I think a raise to somewhere around $14 is the most balanced raise. The difference in pot size is $39 vs $47. It doesn't seem big, but look what happens when/if he raises you:

You bet $22 and he min-raises to $44. You have to call off another $22 and then the pot would be $111 and nobody who bets a reasonable amount into the turn can fold. If you fold to his raise, you aren't feeling very good about it.

You raise to $14 and he min-raises to $28. If you call, you've only paid $6 more than what you paid when you bet $22. The pot is $80--$31 smaller.

I certainly like the 2nd option much better than the first. He now knows you like your hand and you aren't just putting a random move on him.

When a non-K turn comes, if he bets $35-40 into the pot you can call. If he bets the pot, you can more comfortable fold. If he check and you bet $40 and he checkraises all in, you can more comfortably fold.

Either way, though, there is a possibility you are going to lose your stack on this hand. But I think you come out ahead far more often with the 2nd line--the big difference being that you can fold to a big reraise on the turn more comfortably than the raise on the flop. Many times that reraise on the flop is a worse hand and you won't have a feel for it until the play on the turn.

(Or maybe I'm just full of it--I dropped $900 playing 2/4 NL 6 handed last night!)

Teresa

[emil3000]

Nah man of course you should raise his $2 bet. That's like a [censored] check. Once he pops it again you shouldn't reraise, cause of standard reasons, worse hands will fold, better hands stack you.

[4_2_it]

The only thing I would add to your response that you ignore implied odds which probably allow for villain to draw to anything with 5 or more outs. I think your stack is going in a on non-threatening turn, so the only weapon at your disposal is putting the decision to call an all-in on villain. With villain reads (rock, maniac, uber-LAG) then a different path would make sense, but without reads it is -EV to lay down AA.

[JudoGirl]

If he is on a draw, I don't think he gets the right implied odds unless he hits his draw on the turn and you let him get you all in. Once he has misses the turn but calls your bet he has put so much money into the pot that he has made a huge mistake and cannot get enough money into the pot on the river to make up for his mistake.