MATH: 45 extra chips to start 800-chip tourney adds >5% to ROI

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Without understanding the effect why do you assume the 45 chips would be diminished like friction? Why wouldn't it snowball? I would start with it doing neither.

When you say it wouldn't have much effect on ROI are you talking 2-3% or .2-.3%?

[protoverus]

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Without understanding the effect why do you assume the 45 chips would be diminished like friction? Why wouldn't it snowball? I would start with it doing neither.

When you say it wouldn't have much effect on ROI are you talking 2-3% or .2-.3%?

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2-3% would be large IMO. .2-.3% sounds more resonable. However, i'll have to think again now...why wouldn't it snowball? That's a good point. I suppose it could. Maybe it could do either, but what factors would control it? Relative skill level most likely, but we ignore that in ICM...

I guess that in my mind, the ICM works great hand to hand because it's easier to ignore skill differences in a single hand situation. But over the course of an entire SNG? The differences between the assumption (equal skill) and reality must grow larger.

At any rate I appreciate the discussion which is making me think about the game in a fresh way again.

be well.

[JJKillian]

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I think math is extremely important. Basically the best player will be the one that has a great intuition/pattern recognition ability and a fantastic mathematical understanding. However one of these two facets alone is usually not enough to make someone a great player.

I think I've always had relatively decent instincts, but as soon as I worked very hard on the math, my game, my confidence level and my results instantly shot through the roof.

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not trying to lower the value of the math in this reply. But this is going to sound nuts, and I have no way of totally proving it. But in my profession I am a sales trainer. Not like the guy at the local car dealership. I go in and train different types of sales people across many types of products. Many of which I am very limited in my knowledge about.

What I am getting at here is this. You said your confidence went up. When that happens something happens to your thought process and just makes things happen. You make better decisions, and just over all think straighter. I have taken a regular salesman that has the same product and same basic client base as the number 1 and actually made him compete with the number 1 guy by simply increasing his confidence.

Point is, I guarantee the math helped you, but gaining in your confidence lvl may have helped even more.

I am sure everyone that has been running bad or good knows it comes in streaks. Well why does variance run in streaks? That doesn't make a ton of sence. The word is very clear, it is variance. So why should it runs in streaks? I think it is because one or two bad beats starts a slight lose in confidence. Which then lowers the players ability which will eventually lead to a bad decision which lowers confidence, so on and so forth. It also runs the other way when your running good. It is amazing the things that happen when your confidence is up.

Just a random theory I have.

JJ

[curtains]

.2-.3% is totally unreasonable! You are gaining chips that have a theoretical value of like 4-5% ROI! To pretend that there is even a possibility that they are worth only about 1/20th of their actual value is absurd.

[curtains]

Why is it so hard for some poker players to just admit that math might be very important towards acheiving good results? You are not the only one who is so resistant to this concept.

I have done a huge amount of work on the math and I have many charts dealing with work I've done on particilar situations to back this up, things that almost no one in the world has, and these have aided me greatly. I constantly see winning players making egregious mathematical mistakes late in tournaments/sit and gos, because their instincts lead them astray.

While doing this I learned that a lot of the things I used to do were actually incorrect, and have been able to adjust them because of the math work I did. Suddenly I have unbeleivable results for an extended period of time, almost immediately after doing this work. This is not because I have "extra confidence", its because I did a lot of work and have more knowledge than my opponents and more knowledge than I had before.

Trust me I had plenty of confidence before I did this work and I see plenty of people on 2+2 who seem more confident than they should be based on how much they seem to know. Confidence doesn't win you pots or tournaments.

[Nicholasp27]

1070 vs 770 stacks = .1298 ev which is an18% roi player

so let's give him that to handicap the game...he's an 18% player and hte rest are all average donks


NOW give him 5 chips from everybody

ev=.1346


so 22.36% roi, or 4.36 extra roi points!


this may be more accurate as well, because you handicapped icm so icm knows he's an 18% player instead of assuming he's an average player if u give 800 to everyone...

Amen brother

Furthermore, I can't imagine why doing something counterintuitive would give you extra confidence until AFTER the explosive results start coming in, at least the first time you go for the Trust The Math methodology

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1070 vs 770 stacks = .1298 ev which is an18% roi player

so let's give him that to handicap the game...he's an 18% player and hte rest are all average donks


NOW give him 5 chips from everybody

ev=.1346


so 22.36% roi, or 4.36 extra roi points!


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So he gets less than the 4.4% the average player got, this is a valid comparison right?

So this would mean I was correct that the dead-on average player is the one who would gain the most from 45 extra chips? Or did nobody disagree with that anyway...

[JJKillian]

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Why is it so hard for some poker players to just admit that math might be very important towards acheiving good results? You are not the only one who is so resistant to this concept.

I have done a huge amount of work on the math and I have many charts dealing with work I've done on particilar situations to back this up, things that almost no one in the world has, and these have aided me greatly. I constantly see winning players making egregious mathematical mistakes late in tournaments/sit and gos, because their instincts lead them astray.

While doing this I learned that a lot of the things I used to do were actually incorrect, and have been able to adjust them because of the math work I did. Suddenly I have unbeleivable results for an extended period of time, almost immediately after doing this work. This is not because I have "extra confidence", its because I did a lot of work and have more knowledge than my opponents and more knowledge than I had before.

Trust me I had plenty of confidence before I did this work and I see plenty of people on 2+2 who seem more confident than they should be based on how much they seem to know. Confidence doesn't win you pots or tournaments.

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sorry wasn't trying to insult you, just throwing in a theory I cannot prove. Actually said that in the beginning of the post. And also put in I am sure the math helped a ton also. You have to have the math, no doubt about it. But a machine is better than a human at math. But to this day no machine can beat the best at their respective game. So if math is the end all answer then why hasen't one of the elite poker players simply programmed a machine to crush us all?

JJ

[Nicholasp27]

because of what i said before...it's all about what you set the variables to


if u pick up that someone is bluffing from a tell, then you change the variables...a machine may not pick up on that...

u can think of other examples like that

the fact is, everything in life is mathematical...but very very complex equations in which we constantly and intuitively change the value of the variables