$20 party SNG push or fold?

NotAClue · #1 10-24-2004, 01:58 PM

Sorry if this question (or something similar) has been answered before:

Down to the money, I'm in the SB with about 1800, Button has about the same (but has me covered) and BB has the rest of the chips. 200/400 blinds.

Button raises to 1000, this means he does not have a monster hand, likely two highcards or a medium pocket pair. I have 99, is this a push? Button will not fold if I push.

lorinda · #2 10-24-2004, 02:01 PM

likely two highcards or a medium pocket pair. I have 99

Blinds are huge, you've got third place whatever happens and you've already said that your 99 is only losing to TT, and could have the guy dominated.

I think you're looking for confirmation here of something that went wrong.

Given your read and your scenario, I push here 100%

Lori

NotAClue · #3 10-24-2004, 02:06 PM

Thanks for the advice. I'm not really looking for a confirmation here, I'm 95% sure of the kind of hand he has (he had KT), I was just wondering whether I should wait it out since I have no folding equity here.

lorinda · #4 10-24-2004, 02:15 PM

The simplest view is to look at it as a fight for who is going to be challenging for the heads up spot.

It's a straight fight between you and the other 1800 chip guy.

If you fold here, he takes a big lead on you in a situation where you are either a slight fave (overcards)or a big fave (pair, unless he has Tens).

You have every opportunity here to take him out and get your spot against the chip leader.
Some rough numbers

Call: Win 60%
Fold: He takes a 2400-1600 lead on you, so you are in the 40% range.

Although clearly all approximate (The others MAY clash), I find it helps to think of this as a two player contest where the winner plays the chip leader in the final.

Lori