best play with these jacks?

[NotAClue]

Party Poker 0.5-$1.00 blind table. I just started playing this level so I don't know any of the other players very well (aside from the hour or so I have been playing at this table). I have about $63 in LMP and get a pair of jacks and make my standard open of $4. One limper UTG (~$61 and nothing notable about his play), CO, and Button all call (both have me covered). Button seems especially bad and willing to call with very marginal hands such as TP no kicker.

~16 in the pot and the flop comes 8,9,T rainbow. UTG checks it to me and I push.

[pdubz]

That's a pretty big overbet, and I think the only hands that call are those that are beating you -- so, bad bet. You get no extra money when you are ahead; when you are behind you lose it all.

You said button was bad; bad enough to call this huge overbet? If you are making a specific play against this fellow than that's fine, but no decent player with just a single pair hand is going to call you. Maybe a loosey goosey player holding JTo, but considering opponents could have 89, 9T, 8T, 88, 99, TT, QQ AND that there are two players acting after you, it seems like a really bad move.

Furthermore, if you bet a reasonable amount, the drawing hands that (incorrectly) call could easily be drawing to just split outs. More free money!

I might make overbet with strong hands in short to try and antagonize my opponents, but I understand that for each of those individual plays I'm sacrificing a huge amount of EV. As a hand in isolation though, this is pretty bad play.

[NotAClue]

It should be noted that Button will likely flat call the flop with a marginal hand as well as a monster if I make a reasonable bet.

Consider the following situations if I make a reasonable bet, ~12 (3/4 pot), and get one caller. There will be ~$40 in the pot and I will have $47 behind.

1. an A,K,Q,J,T,6,8, or hell even a 9 hits on the turn

2. a blank hits, and I push

3. a blank hits, and I bet $25 into the $40 pot; I have $22 behind. I'm raised for the rest of my chips. Basically I'd have to call $22 to win ~$115.

[BlueBear]

You're overplaying your stack and usually only a better hand will call you. I think betting the pot on the flop is sufficient to make it a mistake for drawing hands to call you. With an equally deep stack in the table as yours, you'll need to be more careful not to lose it all unnecssarily fast.

[bobman0330]

In a situation such as this, your position is actually fairly good. I would recommend a pot-size bet here. If you get a caller, I would probably push on any turn card. Being one of the first to act prevents anyone from bluffing you out. And 75% of the cards that scare you will also scare your opponent, because they aren't the ones he needs.

[pdubz]

Your point is that almost every card in the deck makes the turn hard to play -- but how on earth does that justify pushing? He's not calling a push with a marginal hand -- he's only calling if you are beat! I mean, I think it'd be better EV-wise to fold than push. Okay that's a lie, but not too far off base. If he calls with a monster or a marginal hand, that's fine, but what's also likely is he has no hand and folds. You still have enough chips to manuever. By your logic, you'd push AK on an AXX flop just because you think they will just call with marginal or monster hands and fear any other random card two-pairing makes further streets unplayable. Hold 'em has a flop, a turn and a river for a reason!

Let us suppose you bet 12, he calls, pot is now 40. Will your opponent still just call a turn bet if he's still on a draw? Will he reraise with nothing? Will only reraise if he's ahead? Will he call still with the monster? Betting less than 1/3 the pot will still make the odds very wrong for him to draw on an open ended if you bet each street, and still leave you with a lot of chips to make a decision.

It depends on how this atypical player will play further streets, but I don't think flat pushing can ever be the right decision.

[pdubz]

[ QUOTE ]
And 75% of the cards that scare you will also scare your opponent, because they aren't the ones he needs

[/ QUOTE ]

Right on the $.

[NotAClue]

Normally, I'd never do this. On the surface it seems like a only a better hand is likely to call kind of situation. Here a list of scenarios that I posed to pdubz:

Consider the following situations if I make a reasonable bet, ~12 (3/4 pot), and get one caller. There will be ~$40 in the pot and I will have $47 behind.

1. an A,K,J,T,6,8, or hell even a 9 hits on the turn

2. a blank hits, and I push

3. a blank hits, and I bet $25 into the $40 pot; I have $22 behind. I'm raised for the rest of my chips. Basically I'd have to call $22 to win ~$115.

------------

The problem, as I see it, is that my stack size, position, and the flop give me a spectacular reverse-implied odds situation.

The turn card is extremely likely to cause me to make a mistake: either folding a winner or putting it all in with a loser.

Bobman0330 suggested that I actually have great position here, as I am first to act, and therefore it's difficult to bluff me out. Well, I think this is exactly what makes this a terrible reverse implied odds situation. Because of my marginal holding I HAVE to bet the turn on a blank and a scare card, which I means I am pot commited for sure. I do NOT have room to maneuver with my stack size (a flop bet + turn bet = all the money has to go in). As far as I see, this makes the turn extremely easy for my opponent to play. If the flopped a better made hand, obviously all the money goes in on the turn; if the turn gave them a better hand, all the money goes in on the turn.

------------------

So in conclusion, I see the following scenarios:

1. I am up against a better made hand. Well basically if I bet flop and turn, all the money has to go in (barring a significant tell, which I don't really have in this case) because of my stack size and the pot size. More importantly, if I am upagainst a better made hand, I'd like to get all the money in on the flop with my pretty good draw.

2. I am up against a marginal hand. Well a marginal hand might or might not fold to a reasonable flop bet. But if they're willing to call a pot bet on the flop with something like AT, they might be willing to call the push thinking I have something like AK.

3. I am up against what the opponent THINKS is a strong draw (something like JT). Well this is great, because the villain would just love to get all the money in on the flop when they think that they're not far behind with their draw--when in actuality they're a substantial dog.

---------------------

RESULTS: everyone folded

[schwza]

i'm surprised no one has suggested a c/r-push. if the CO bets, it's perfect, because loosey-goose button might call and get trapped in the middle. if you get called a better hand (that's not a made straight), you have 10 outs, or you'll win ~40% (less if you're up against a set) - not a disaster at all. you might get called by a hand you're way ahead of like KT.

and if it gets checked around, then so be it. the only real scare cards for you are an A, K, or 6. and 6 shouldn't even be too scary, because there aren't that many hands containing a 7 that can stand up to a raise (btw, this is why i always make a raise to 5 bb's when there's a limper in - you want to have some confidence that opponents will fold their weaker limping hands so it's easier to identify what they have. others recommend 4xbb + 1 for each limper.) and if it does hit, you still have 8 outs (7 if someone has a 7). you have a chance to keep the pot small, which will be useful if a scare card hits on the turn or river (b/c you can get away w/out losing much or the river bet will be easier to call b/c it'll be smaller). giving a free card here isn't good, but it's not horrible. i'd c/r-push.