Waiting till the turn to protect a hand

[Stuck]

So I've been playing limit hold'em for a while, and my basic strategy has been to get as much money in the pot when I think I'm ahead. But I keep coming across the idea that occasionally it might not be right to raise a bettor on the flop, because you're unable to raise sufficiently to protect your hand, and instead wait until the turn, where draws will be unable to correctly call your raise. But then when I think about it some more, it seems like a case of winning more pots, but not winning more money. Don't you want them to call on the flop, even though they may then have odds to call on the turn as well, since, even though they have good pot odds, you're still more likely to win the pot than they are? Can someone explain to me where I'm going wrong in thinking about this? Thanks!

[Stork]

If they have correct odds to call, then they're not making a mistake when they do so. In the case where you are the favorite to win, you still make money, but not as much as you would if you had waited for the turn, when they have insufficient odds. Then when they call, they do so to their detriment, and you gain.

[johnc]

I see two times where waiting for the turn is better in terms of winning the pot: 1) you got the best but somewhat vulnerable hand such as two pair with draws on board - you call flop bets, see if the turn card is a blank - then you can bet/raise/reraise(this is not a slowplay!), 2) the pot's too big on the flop to get people to fold to your better holdings so wait for the turn when the bets double allowing your bets/raises to give those longshot draws improper odds to continue.

[Stork]

Waiting for the turn to raise is best when: you cannot offer people incorrect odds on the flop, you know they will call getting correct odds on the flop, and waiting for the turn will offer opponents incorrect odds. All the above have to be true for waiting for the turn to be more profitable than a flop raise.

[Stuck]

Thanks for the reply but I still don't get it - maybe it needs to be more concrete. I mean, suppose you're up against a flush draw (2:1 by the river). He may have the correct pot odds (due to a bunch of preflop limpers) to call your raise on the flop. But, you're still more likely to win the pot than he is, so everything additional you can throw in there is +EV, right? Even though you're now giving him the correct odds on the turn too you'll still be favorite there as well? What am I missing? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[johnc]

You're correct in that many times the pots become too bloated to offer incorrect odds by putting more chips in. You might be giving a cheaper card by not raising the flop, but your intention is to wait for the blank card on the turn then bet & raise to make it as painful as you can for those draws to call to the river. Raising will also make up for those occasions when you do get drawn out on.

[bernie]

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Don't you want them to call on the flop, even though they may then have odds to call on the turn as well, since, even though they have good pot odds,

[/ QUOTE ]

no. I like to make them call as incorrectly as possible for as much as possible when their odds are longest to hit their hands. Why, on the expensive streets, do you want to let them off so easy instead only trying to make them make mistakes on the smaller streets?

Does a casino make money offering 2-1 or 3-1 payoff on a coinflip?

[ QUOTE ]
But then when I think about it some more, it seems like a case of winning more pots, but not winning more money.

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Longrun, you're not winning more money in some cases. It's not about the # of pots you win. Many times, the guy who wins the most pots is the biggest loser on the night.

b

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
Even though you're now giving him the correct odds on the turn too you'll still be favorite there as well? What am I missing?

[/ QUOTE ]

Aren't you a bigger favorite on the the turn? Add to that that the turn bets are double size. Wouldn't you rather get the most money in when you can put in bigger bets while you're the bigger favorite also?

In your example the flush draw goes from about a 35% chance of hitting to about 20%. That's almost a 50% increase in EV for you just on his odds to hit alone.

b

[Stuck]

Oh, OK, I think I might have missed something fairly obvious - there's an underlying (obviously quite reasonable!) assumption in all of this, i.e. that if you raise the flop, you won't have chance to raise the turn?

[Womble]

No,

If you raise the flop the pot is bigger. So even if you raise the turn you will give your opponenets the correct odds to call