too thin a value bet?

30/60 party, 10 handed

hero has QQ on the button, utg is a complete unknown


utg open raises, hero 3 bets, blinds call....

flop is JJ5 rainbow, check, check, utg bets, I raise, 2 folds, utg calls...

turn is a 9, utg checks, hero bets, utg calls

river is an 8, utg checks....

I have a strong feeling that I am ahead here, but here is my question.... what hand calls me down here that I can beat?, any J beats me, AA or KK beats me (remember, this is an unknown, so I have no idea how passive/agressive he is post flop), and now 99 or 88 beat me, so what possible hands that he would open raise utg preflop would he calldown w/ that I would beat?... am I overanalyzing and giving this guy too much credit??.... all I see myself beating is TT if he calls

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am I overanalyzing and giving this guy too much credit??

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yes, bet

Even though this guy is an unknown, you can still do some hand reading to figure out if you should bet this river or not.

First lets assume he will raise 88-AA,AK,AQ,AJ in this spot.
Now lets eliminate hands that dont make logical sense.

1) The villain cannot have AA or KK cuz he probably wouldve capped preflop or played more aggressive postflop.
2) The villain cannot have AK or AQ since he probably wouldnt bet the flop
3) The villain cannot have AJ or 99 becuz he probably wouldve checkraised the turn or bet/3bet the turn.

So ignoring the possibility that the villain has the other combination of QQ, what hands are left that the villain can have that makes logical sense. The answer is TT or 88. Since you are a 2-1 favorite against this range you should bet the river for value.