Interesting flop play

me454555 · #1 10-11-2005, 07:15 PM

What I did do and what I should have done are 2 different things, I think. I'll wait for discussion to die down about this hand before I post my thoughts. I'm also not posting the turn and river b/c it may encourage some results oriented thinking.

Party Poker 3.00/6.00 Hold'em (6 handed) link

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 1 folds, Hero raises, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (10.00 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG bets, Hero...

TomBrooks · #2 10-11-2005, 07:18 PM

Raise to try to get it heads up and clean up your overcard outs. If UTG plays back at you, be wary that he might have flopped a set or two connected pair. Also be careful if a Queen comes, because it will make a straight for JT.

Come to think about it, a J might make someone a straight also. Your overcard outs could be no good on this board. Just call for the gutshot chances and let everyone else stay in to pay you off if you hit.

Moozh · #3 10-11-2005, 08:30 PM

Let's look at our three options.

Fold: obviously wrong. You have odds to call for your gutshot as it is. The only reason to fold is if you're afraid of action behind you. I don't think that's enough of a risk.

Call: You have a gutshot and overs, UTG's action looks like a pair or JT so either way you have plenty of outs to beat him. Calling allows the other two players to stay in with a wide range.

Raise: You're probably not raising for value, but rather to free up outs. What cards are we trying to fold? Any hand that has you reverse dominated. Those hands would include Q3, Q8, J3 and J8 (I'm assuming a 9 wouldn't fold). If those hands are suited, they might be in the hand range of your opponents. otherwise, at least Q3 and J3 are probably out. Any ten taints your pair outs, so we'd like to get anyone with that card out. AQ, AJ, KQ, KJ , and another QJ are also hands we need out. We probably wouldn't mind an AK fold either to prevent redraws.

So, do the benefits of raising compensate for the extra bet? I'm not really sure, but I think it's close. It's very hard to evaluate the probability that A) the remaining players have a hand you want them to fold and B) they will fold that hand for two bets but not for one bet. If both of those conditions are likely met, then it's probably a good idea to raise.

witeknite · #4 10-11-2005, 11:07 PM

Posting blind. Protect your good drawing hand in a big pot. Yes?

Edit: Changed great to good. I thought we were open ended at first.

WiteKnite

me454555 · #5 10-11-2005, 11:57 PM

I think moozh pointed out the benefits of raising and the rest of the posters seem to agree. I think a raise here is right b/c 1) Pot is big and 2) you can clean up you're pair outs by eliminating a gutshot or 2. You can also eliminate hand like AQ/AJ that would also be problematic if you hit a pair on the turn.

Raising is what I should have done, calling is what I did. here's how the hand played out

Party Poker 3.00/6.00 Hold'em (6 handed) link

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 1 folds, Hero raises, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (10.00 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG bets, Hero calls, Button calls, SB calls, BB folds.

Turn: (7.00 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, UTG bets, Hero raises, Button folds, SB folds, UTG calls.

River: (11.00 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets, UTG calls.

Final Pot: 13.00 BB.
Results in white below:
Hero has Qc Jc (a straight, nine to king.)
UTG has 7d 9d (a pair of nines.)
Hero wins 12.50 BB.

brettbrettr · #6 10-11-2005, 11:58 PM

reads?

Seems like an easy raise to me. You have the odds to call with just the gutshot and if you can buy a free look at the river, hell, why not.

Nietzsche · #7 10-12-2005, 10:08 AM

Another reason to raise is if he has JT or 76 he will steal the pot from you if he bets all streets and none of you improve. If you seize the initiative on the flop you take it down.

This is a perhaps a very minor point but it all adds up when weighing for and against.

GetThere1Time · #8 10-12-2005, 10:52 AM

I'll go ahead an be the oddball. I call in this spot. It looks a lot like we have 10 outs and I don't mind having everyone come in behind me.

If someone has JT and our Q is bad then we're not cleaning up anything because they're not folding. Being dominated is certainly possible and unpleasant but I think most of the time in this situation our overcard outs are clean. Plus if we make the Q or J on the turn we have the bettor right before us so that we can clear the field after we make our hand.

I agree with Moozh though. It's close and we need the two conditions he outlined to be present. But I don't think those two conditions will be present in this pot at this limit enough for this to be worth it. I could be wrong though. I'm going through kind of a passive phase lately.

TomBrooks · #9 10-12-2005, 12:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Turn: (7.00 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, UTG bets, Hero raises, Button folds, SB folds, UTG calls.

[/ QUOTE ]
When your gutshot comes in here, I like just calling and going for overcalls. You couldn't fold a flush draw here or a set here, and there seems to be little else that has chances to redraw on you.

A raise is likely to fold both Button and SB and to make you only able to get one more bet from UTG here and maybe one more from him on the river, which is what happened.

One overcall on the turn and you break even there. If you get two, your doing better, and UTG might then bet out on the river and if he will call a raise you would net another bet. If Button or SB connect with that King that came on the river, especially if it gives them two pair, they might be willing to pay you to see your nut straight at showdown.

krishanleong · #10 10-12-2005, 12:27 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You couldn't fold a flush draw here or a set here, and there seems to be little else that has chances to redraw on you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just because they won't fold doesn't mean you shouldn't raise. You raise for value.

Krishan