10-20 AK hand - What do my opponents have?

[Tommy Angelo]

"Flop: Q J 3 ... UTG bets ..."

I would raise right there or fold, and I don't think I could fold, so raise it is. If LHO makes it three bets, great, now I pay one bet to try to hit the nuts on the turn, or pick up a nut draw, but I can fold on the turn if I miss altogether or catch a pair.

If this raise causes LHO to fold his pocket underpair, or his AK, now I really really like it because there's fresh chunks of dead money in the pot and I bought last seat. Whatever RHO does, reraise the flop, of just call, I'll have the best chance of getting a good read, with him doing the reacting.

The main thing I'm anticipating on this hand is, can I fold when it's right to, for one bet, on the turn or river, if I make a pair? And the only way I can have that kind of certainty is if I show enough strength that a reshow of strength by either opponent can be trusted, especially with a flush draw out.

Tommy

[PokerPrince]

Raising Utg's flop bet would be my choice here. This is a good time to semi-bluff and you may get out another AK with this move. As far as preflop goes, you mentioned you didn't know much about your opponents so not capping is probably the best plan here. I think LHO has a set of Queens and Utg has something like an AJ for two pair.

PokerPrince

[JTG51]

pufferfish, I appreciate any response, even (or maybe especially) from a 'micro-limit rookie'.

Most opponents would play an overpair as aggressively as LHO played this hand. If the turn had been a low card he could have easily still played AA or KK this way.

Thanks for the comments.

[JTG51]

You make good points about calling or capping with AK before the flop.

I'll add that I think your opponents post flop style of play is at least as important as his preflop raising standards when making that decision. If he's the type that will easily lay down a missed AK without playing back at you, I'll be far more likely to cap before the flop. Also, I know a few people that will instantly put a preflop capper on AA or KK. So much so that they will fold QQ or JJ overpairs after the flop sometimes. I'll cap AK almost everytime preflop against that kind of player.

[JTG51]

Andy, my read of my opponents was just about the same as yours. I was confident UTG had KT, and put LHO on AA or QQ, maybe JJ.

I'm really torn between folding and raising being the best play on the flop, I think it's probably a close decision.

"It's going to be raised at least once on the flop."

If I was sure LHO was going to raise the flop my decision would have been much easier. The game had been pretty passive though, so I thought I might get a cheap turn card. In retrospect, I hate that decision.

[JTG51]

Tommy, I'm squarely on the fence between folding and raising the flop. I think my call was clearly the worst decision.

Someone here (I think maybe you) once said that when two very good players disagree on a play (you and Andy in this case) it's probably a very close EV decision. I think this a good example of that idea.

You make a good argument for raising, like always. I think a flop raise would have made it very difficult for me to make a mistake on the turn or river. Maybe that alone is enough of a reason to make raising the correct play.

[JTG51]

"you mentioned you didn't know much about your opponents so not capping is probably the best plan here"

I think you hit the nail on the head there. I'm much more likely to cap with a hand like AK when I know how my opponents will react to it.

[JTG51]

LHO raised the turn after I folded and UTG called. The river was 7 [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img] making the final board:

Q [img]/forums/images/icons/heart.gif[/img] J [img]/forums/images/icons/heart.gif[/img] 3 [img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img] A [img]/forums/images/icons/club.gif[/img] 7 [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img]

UTG checked, LHO checked, and I felt sick to my stomach. UTG showed K [img]/forums/images/icons/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/forums/images/icons/club.gif[/img] and took the pot. LHO didn't show. My AK would have been good.

I think if I had capped preflop, or raised UTG's flop bet I would have won the hand.

Thanks for the responses.

[mikelow]

I like the idea of a cap preflop.

[andyfox]

And, of course, I knew that read was wrong, otherwise you probably don't post. Tough game sometimes.