$5 rebuy. 10-10, last hand in rebuy period.

[wiggs73]

I posted this in the $5r thread, but I thought it might get more reponses if I made a separate thread for it. Anyway, here's the post...

Guys, what are your thoughts on this hand? It was the last hand before the break and UTG is riverdave who (I think) is fairly well known and good. He's been playing tight since he got over 10k. As you can tell, I folded. Would it have been worth it to risk my 10k stack? I was fairly certain that I'd get calls from the 2 players to act after me, so the pot would have been something like 30k. So here are my options...

1. risk having 5k at the break for the chance of having 30k at the break.
2. take a sure 12k at the break.

Edit: I should say, incase I haven't made it obvious, that I'm pretty sure I'm behind to riverdave or at the very best, a coinflip.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

MP2 (t2500)
CO (t10445)
Hero (t10910)
SB (t5050)
BB (t3585)
UTG (t10980)
UTG+1 (t5490)
MP1 (t14645)

Preflop: Hero is Button with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t400</font>, UTG+1 calls t400, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises to t2500</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>

[Hotrod0823]

For me its an easy push. Last hand or not at worst it cost you another 15 bucks to get back to 5K at the break and at best you are getting a stack of 25K-30K going into the rest of the tourney.

I hate this fold personally.

[wiggs73]

Yeah, I find myself having a similar sentiment towards it. At the time, all I could think about was that I was almost certain that riverdave would call a push from me and have me dominated.

I think if he and I had stacks of say 20k and a similar situation developed, I'd like the fold more though.

[gumpzilla]

Soo, if I represent your $EV after the break as f(x), where x is the number of chips you have, and W is your chance of winning the pot, your question boils down to

Is W*f(30000) + (1-W)*(f(5000) - 10) &gt; f(12000)

(assuming you add-on in all scenarios, and also neglecting relatively significant side pot considerations which make it a big complicated mess.) Since f(30000) isn't likely to be too much more than 2*f(12000), and you think there's a decent chance that UTG has JJ+ and will call, I'm thinking this isn't the greatest of spots. I'd dump it, given your reads.

[Exitonly]

rebuy period i'm pushing/calling. (probably pushing)
any other time i'm folding.