$22 - what do you think villain has and what's my move?

[wiggs73]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

MP2 (t325)
CO (t1555)
Button (t830)
SB (t1280)
Hero (t840)
UTG (t645)
UTG+1 (t1715)
MP1 (t810)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, CO calls t50, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero checks.

Flop: (t125) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t125</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to t250</font>

[Freudian]

I think he has you beat and your move is to fold. Sure he might have a draw, but there is no reason for you to bust out in a situation like this.

[bjb23]

[ QUOTE ]
what do you think villain has

[/ QUOTE ]

you beat.

[ QUOTE ]
and what's my move?

[/ QUOTE ]

fold

[gumpzilla]

Don't bet so much if you're trying to take this down - I think you can get away with 75 for that purpose. Checkraising would frequently be my choice, depending on your opponent, because I think a lot of people will fire out when checked to and then give up the hand if you fight back. But I think this is a pretty easy fold given how you got here. I think it's unlikely that you'll make your opponent fold and I think he will very frequently have tons of outs when he does call you.

[Bigwig]

There's no need to lead out 125 here.

[wiggs73]

[ QUOTE ]
There's no need to lead out 125 here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Elaborate. Are you suggesting lead out with a smaller amount, check-call, check-raise, check-fold?

[Bigwig]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
There's no need to lead out 125 here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Elaborate. Are you suggesting let out with a smaller amount, check-call, check-raise, check-fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

Leading out is debatable. I might not, in this situation. But if I were to, I wouldn't bet the pot. You're up against one player, so I'm not too worried about him having a draw. It's important to note, that even if he's on a draw, he's not far behind you on this board. He'll have live overcards. I'd bet 75 or so. If I were betting.

[bluefeet]

A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]x[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] - where 'x' might just be the 5

Meh...a strong flush-draw of some sorts (KQ,KJ,etc). TP, set, overpair, etc. generally shouldn't be getting this cute on this "blind-friendly" flop. I have a hunch you are indeed ahead, but I'm not spending another chip to find out. He WILL call your push...he likely has 15 outs.

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 31.4141 % 30.51% 00.91% { Qc4s }
Hand 2: 68.5859 % 67.68% 00.91% { Ah5h }

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 46.5657 % 46.36% 00.20% { Qc4s }
Hand 2: 53.4343 % 53.23% 00.20% { Ah8h }

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 51.8182 % 50.91% 00.91% { Qc4s }
Hand 2: 48.1818 % 47.27% 00.91% { KhQh }

Push it? Whelp...you did sink yourself with your pot lead here. Personally, I'd muck. You're into push/fold mode...collecting a set of blinds will get you back to square one.


[Side-bar: Do we push this if we KNOW he is on a FD? Considering the price we are NOW facing? The odds of our hand "holding up"? &lt;- I'm asking]

[durron597]

I lead for slightly less (like 80) and fold to the minraise. You are a big dog (vs. a higher pair) or a small(ish) favorite to a draw.

[golfcchs]

I usually check fold here because I find that at the 22's nobody will respect a blind bet on the flop heads up and you will get reraised with all kinds of hands. I may be wrong, but I really don't like a bet because I think it induces bluffs you cant call.