how often can you win (general theory ?)

[Dave D]

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how can you not have more than 1/10 chance of winning when you're at the final table with an average stack? are you sure there isn't something wrong with your FT play? a winning player should be able to win more than his share of FTs.

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Umm, that's really really secondary to the point I was trying to make. Although I haven't played much MTTs lately, and havent made a FT in a while.

Even if you made it 20%, which I think is pretty generous considering you've got at least another coinflip to win, and quite possibly a 40/60, how can you ever assess yourself at greater than 5% to win when there's 150 left? Does a double up really change anything? My whole point is no, it's really insignificant in the long run because you've got like at least 4 more coinflips to win.

[pfkaok]

ok. must be a misunderstanding here. i didn't say you win more than 5% when there's 150 left . i said you'd win more than 1/150 = .66%

6% is what i said you'd win more than if there were 16 people

[pfkaok]

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Umm, that's really really secondary to the point I was trying to make. Although I haven't played much MTTs lately, and havent made a FT in a while.


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and this isn't secondary at all. the whole point here is that when there's N players left, and you have an average stack, you should win more than 1/N. i really don't think thats up for debate. the real question is how MUCH MORE than 1/N.

[ilya]

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well if you're an average stack, just pretend it's a whole new tournament.

so if there 50 people left, and you're average, and you're a 100% ROI player, that means your 2x as good average, so you could probaly estimate that you'd win 1/25 times.

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i don't think that works, because the remaining 10% of players figure to be a stronger field than the initial one you used to calculate your edge at the outset of the tournament.

[Dave D]

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Umm, that's really really secondary to the point I was trying to make. Although I haven't played much MTTs lately, and havent made a FT in a while.


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and this isn't secondary at all. the whole point here is that when there's N players left, and you have an average stack, you should win more than 1/N. i really don't think thats up for debate. the real question is how MUCH MORE than 1/N.

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Yeah, my point is that the "much more" is tiny, like an extra .05% or something (not 5%, .05%). My point is that it's not signifant to the bottom line unless you quad up or something, because you still have so many unknown variables

[Dave D]

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ok. must be a misunderstanding here. i didn't say you win more than 5% when there's 150 left . i said you'd win more than 1/150 = .66%

6% is what i said you'd win more than if there were 16 people

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Yes, I realize that. The 5% was my made up number (based on assessing yourself at 20% at the FT), it's an approximation. The point is, nothing short of a HUGE chip accumulation is going to matter towards your chance of winning. I mean, it'll matter, but so tiny that it's not worth considering and there's really no way to calculate it because of all the unknowns.

[pfkaok]

ok. fine. obviously nobody wants to put in any serious thought about this. its complicated, yes, but not totally unsolvable IMO, at least to an approximation. sure, the final table will still usually have better than avg. opponents, but i'm talking about if you're a VERY good player. there shouldn't be too many spots where you're not still above average skill at the FT.

look at Zeejustin, or Gigs stats from the bigger buyin STTs. these are mostly good players that they go against, but still manage to win a decent amount more than 1/10. 1/7 or 1/8 is a huge difference from 1/10. if you're only 1/10 to win when you make it to a typical FT with an average stack, i highly doubt you could be a 100% ROI player.