Presto

[Scuba Chuck]

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Dammit. I just wasted 15 minutes on the math when I could have had you do it. I'll post in a minute.

Why haven't I bought eastbay's tool yet?


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Eastbay's calculator is just a crutch. Doing it longhand, now that's an art in it of itself.

[Sam T.]

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Why haven't I bought eastbay's tool yet?

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Heh, heh. He said "Tool." [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[Phil Van Sexton]

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Philly, your question brings up many thoughts.

A. When to talk coinflips
B. CEV vs. $EV
C. Forward Folding Equity

I thought about your hand the whole drive to work (12 minutes). If you want to give me a hand range, I'll do the math for you. And as an added bonus, if you reply within the next 60 minutes, I'll throw in the math against any two cards as well.

Scuba

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The ICM (assuming the BB folds)...

folding = 0.127
call+win = 0.2327
call+lose = 0.0551

I need to win a little more than 40% of the time to breakeven according to ICM. There are only 7 hands (AA-66) where 55 is not the favorite, albeit a small one in many cases.

Hand ranges....
Ax, Kx, any pair, any 2 broadway = 54.122% (ICM=0.151)
Ax, KJ+, any pair = 51.929% (ICM=0.147)
A6+, KJ+, any pair = 47.883% (ICM=0.140)


Maybe I can make up for the ICM with my "skill". Here are my problems with this (in order of importance, IMO)...
-There are 6 people left.
-I'll have only 4.75xBB after I fold.
-There are 3 big stacks directly to my right who may well try to steal ahead of me on the next 3 hands.

The BB confuses things a bit, but I think this is a push.

[Scuba Chuck]

Have you read this post?

Bozeman on the "old coinflip debate"

[Phil Van Sexton]

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Have you read this post?
Bozeman on the "old coinflip debate"

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I read it a while back. I even contributed some pointlessly confusing math to that discussion.

At the time, I don't think we were using ICM. Now we can just look at the ICM and get the answers. The ICM will clearly indicate that a true coin flip is -$EV.

The 55 hand is not quite the same case as the "bubble coin flip" that they were talking about. I say this because:
- My pot odds are better than even money. I have to call 550 to win 950.
- Losing will not eliminate me (just cripple me).
- There are 6 people left, not 4.

Of course, all of these things are accounted for in the ICM. Depending on the villain's hand, calling increases your ICM from 12.7 to 14 or 15. This is significant.

What do you think of these results?

[The Yugoslavian]

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Have you read this post?

Bozeman on the "old coinflip debate"

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Errrm. I'm not sure how I see Bozeman's particular points apply here. I think Phil brings up a very reasonable concern about not being able to exercise much of an edge on future hands. I think his move is dependent on the range of hands one can reasonably put the villian on. If it's wide, you may need to call here.

If you fold. What is your plan?? Are you really going to find FE spots that make up for folding here??

Yugoslav
If Phil's math is right this looks like a call...I'm not sure you can pass it up given the chip stack configuration (unless you know something about the two smallish stacks behind you being very tight).

[Scuba Chuck]

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Of course, all of these things are accounted for in the ICM. Depending on the villain's hand, calling increases your ICM from 12.7 to 14 or 15. This is significant.

What do you think of these results?

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In general, if your $EV math says there's that much of an increase, then you must make that move (unless of course you think BB might make that move).

And back to BB, before your decision, he is getting 2.1 pot odds to call. (I know, I know, we can't assume he will make the correct move.) Furthermore, if you throw some chips in the pot, he is now getting 3.5:1 pot odds.

So, your plan consists of one of two choices:
1) Call, and hope BB doesn't call, and hope you win (a solid choice). What makes this potentially ugly is if BB decides to join. Then I'm positive that makes this -$EV.

2) Fold, and hope UTG steals blinds, or hope, BB calls and UTG wins. Following this hand you WILL have FE against both UTG and MP, IMO. And I would lean into both of these if I had the chance. What makes this strategy tricky is if BB folds on this hand.

Side note:
I narrowed your range down to any pair, any two broadway, and the $EV analysis returns 13.2%. Still a positive decision.

I'm now torn, but still leaning toward a fold. If you were the BB, this is a "have to" IMO.

Regarding the Old Coinflip Debate:
I only post it as to it's relevance regarding +CEV vs. +$EV. I believe it has relevance to pre-bubble play, from a conceptual standpoint. IMO, the point of the orginal thread involved stacksize relative to blindsize. Which is precisely what this discussion involves. (I guess that's the point of all this hand reviews...)

Scuba

[Scuba Chuck]

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Of course, all of these things are accounted for in the ICM. Depending on the villain's hand, calling increases your ICM from 12.7 to 14 or 15. This is significant.

What do you think of these results?

[/ QUOTE ]

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Call, and hope BB doesn't call, and hope you win (a solid choice). What makes this potentially ugly is if BB decides to join. Then I'm positive that makes this -$EV.


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One thing not accounted for in your $EV/ICM equation is the probability that BB will also play. This probability is the equalizer to the problem, otherwise, as I stated earlier, this is a call. Perhaps Eastbay can enlighten us as to how to do this math. I'm interested in learning, if he's interested in teaching.

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
One thing not accounted for in your $EV/ICM equation is the probability that BB will also play. This probability is the equalizer to the problem, otherwise, as I stated earlier, this is a call. Perhaps Eastbay can enlighten us as to how to do this math. I'm interested in learning, if he's interested in teaching.


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I think its just more of the same math we've already done.

We already know 2 things:
- ICM if you fold=12.7
- ICM if you push and BB folds=13.5 through 15 depending range of hands for UTG.

Now we just need to know how often BB will call, and how often you win when the BB calls....oh great, UTG and BB have different stack sizes, so it will be slighty different depending on who beats you. This sucks.

Anyway, the BB is getting great odds, but you see people make terrible folds here all the time. It will be hard to put him on a range of hands.

People get tripped up over the 50% number. It doesn't matter that he's getting 3.5-to-1 to call, if he think's he only has a 35% chance to win, he'll probably fold. This is wrong of course, but it's true at the 30s.

[Scuba Chuck]

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I think its just more of the same math we've already done.

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Those were my assumptions, but don't know if we need a ^ to do any calcs ever.

Then, why not assume a 25% probability that BB calls, and choose a very narrow calling range.