Early desicion...

Tropex · #1 08-04-2005, 05:01 AM

A monkey pulls a weird one on me early in 500 FPP Qualifier for WCOOP:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t20 (9 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

UTG+1 (t1450)
MP1 (t1220)
MP2 (t1480)
MP3 (t1470)
CO (t1430)
Button (t1700)
Hero (t1730)
BB (t1500)
UTG (t1500)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
7 folds, Hero raises to t80, BB raises to t1500, Hero calls t1420.

Flop: (t3000) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)

Turn: (t3000) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)

River: (t3000) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)

Final Pot: t3000

Would you make the call ?

billyjex · #2 08-04-2005, 05:03 AM

super mega easy call

ZBTHorton · #3 08-04-2005, 05:09 AM

Not even close. Call.

whiskeytown · #4 08-04-2005, 05:24 AM

Yes, but I'd expect him to have AK, and of course, he'll hit and win the hand on a flop of A or K -

RB

Tropex · #5 08-04-2005, 06:37 AM

500 FPP is a lot to me (like 2 days effort) and i'm at best, probably 67% favourite to win the hand - do I want to risk it?

I was surpriced though, his reraise was abismally bad, silly and stupid. I mean he could've raised a bit less with supposedly the same result he was going for.

He had A8s...

billyjex · #6 08-04-2005, 06:44 AM

dude, then don't play these. if you can't make this kind of call playing scared there's no point.

MagnoliasFM · #7 08-04-2005, 08:22 AM

[ QUOTE ]
probably 67% favourite to win the hand - do I want to risk it?

[/ QUOTE ]

How can you say this and be a winning poker player?

Tropex · #8 08-04-2005, 09:03 AM

heh, my point being, why would I risk it all early when I will get better spots later on. Of course decisions like these occur very often but the pros are also not so willing to put in their whole stack at risk, let's say you put on your WHOLE stack at risk, 3 times in an MTT with this kind of probability. The probability that you win all of these is about 30%. Add a few and it's significantly lower.

And against AK, it's almost a coinflip anyway, against KK and AA I'm totally dominated. Do I want to risk everything early on or rather win a lot of smaller pots, maybe get my opponent all-in when I actually have a monster postflop as well.

Many people play TV-poker and seem to have a similar attitude as well. All-in is the only reasonable raise etc. This guy obviously was playing that way. If he wanted to scaer me off the pot, he shouldn't have risked his whole stack for doing so.

But let's see the odds. I'm about 2.5 to 1 favourite or something to win the hand and I'm 9 to 1 for my muny. Does anyone else see my point here?

billyjex · #9 08-04-2005, 09:11 AM

yeah, your point isn't very good. any player on this forum would GLADLY take three chances, all in preflop, as a 67% favorite. if I could only be so lucky.

the whole pros folding because they can find a better spot really only applies to 1) the top tier of tournament players, 2) applies more to deeper stack, low blind tournaments ($10k events) and 3) still doesn't really matter because the majority of pros would take this chance to double up because those extra chips means they can find many more oppurtunities to get more chips.

Tropex · #10 08-04-2005, 09:18 AM

hehe kk. Well I did the call, the day before I lost similarly with KK. Just wondering whether it's worth it. Good to know it is ;]