AK at final table

[doubleas]

At the final table, you're 3rd in chips and in middle position with AK. UTG raises a third of your stack and has you covered. The blinds are $6K/12, his raise is to $96K and you have $230K There are 2 short stacks ready to go out in the next 10 hands. Prize money goes up $200 for each spot until top 5 and then $400 for 2 spots and then the real money begins.

I did not think this particular player would fold to my reraise and I was scared that I'd be in a 50/50 situation for first place in chips or out of the tournament.

Do you push or fold? I figure that half the time, I'm out of the tournament with $430. The other half of the time, I have a good shot at winning or taking the top 3 or 4 spots, which are $6400, $4400, $2300, $1900, $1500.

I folded, but now I'm a little concerned that I made a poor decision. He showed jacks. If you knew that he had jacks, what do you do?

[Yeti]

Fold.

If I knew he had JJ I fold in a shot.

[tiger7210]

I believe this is a definite fold based on ur chip position. You're already in good postion to win the tournament and when the chip leader overbets the pot you can probably assume he has a pair or at worst AK. There generally wouldn't be too many hands you're ahead here and to race in this spot with the chance of getting busted out when you're probably behind is not worth the risk. If you felt he would fold to the reraise then maybe you can push him off the hand, but based on your read i believe you made the correct decision in folding here.

[SossMan]

it's pretty easy to do post hand analysis when he showed his hand and it confirmed your "hunch". If he's doing this with Jacks or worse, he's could also be doing this with AQ-ATs.
If he's at a table where his raise (albiet it was an overbet, take note of that) makes AK fold, then it shouldn't be too wrong to be doing this with a wide range of hands.
Oh, and next time, don't put the results in the post...if he would have showed AJs, you would have gotten a bunch of responses that you should have called.

I probably push this vs. an unknown opponent. It would take a very tight player raising in EP for me to lay this down in this spot with 18xBB.

[Lurshy]

I agree with Sossman, This would almost be an auto-push for me. Usually there is so much stealing going on at final tables, that you really need to know someone is a rock to let go of a big hand PF. If he min raised, I may have only called, but the size of his raise probably tilts me towards the push.

The only thing stopping the auto-push, is the fact that it is the big stack. I typically look to avoid confrontations with the big stack, unless I have him trapped. Would rather see him take out short stacks and move up via attrition, than risk a coin flip myself, I fold A-Q here, but don't think I could get away from AK.

[gergery]

I think it’s somewhat close call. Depends a lot on the player and your
read. If he’d make that play only with AA-22, AK/AQ/AJ then you’re probably EV flat. Start adding some AT/KQ and worse hands then your EV starts going up dramatically. If you can rule out AA/KK then your EV goes up a lot. So would he make that play many weaker aces or painted face cards? Would he limp with AA/KK? Has he done this overbet before, and what did it mean then?

Since he out stacks you and many players need to start gambling it up before you, folding has some value here, particularly if the table is tight. But my bias is probably to err on the side of push.

--Greg

[nightlyraver]

You should also consider the fact that you stipulated that he would not fold to your re-raise. That is important. When you push w/ AK, part of the value of the play is the probability that the raiser will fold. If that probability is zero, then you are looking at a different ball of wax. I don't know this player, but many times that someone raises that much as compared to the BB is when they have decent pocket pairs that need protecting, like JJ-77. You are behind all of those. If you were the short stack or close thereto, it's an insta-call IMHO. However, why risk your shot at the real money when it's unnecessary? The situations when you would wanna push are those that involve players who would raise like that w/ not only AA-77 and AK, but also AQ-A9 - then you are at least dominating some hands and you can combine that with the probability that 99-22 may let it go.