Tough decision vs frappe

[lstream]

OK guys - what is your play on fourth? Seat 7 is Frappe.

7 Card Stud High ($5/$10), Ante $0.50, Bring-In $2 (converter)

3rd Street - (0.70 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds
Hero: 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 4: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 5: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 6: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___brings-in___calls
Seat 7: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___completes
Seat 8: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds

4th Street - (4.70 SB)

Hero: 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___???
Seat 5: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___
Seat 6: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___
Seat 7: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___double bets

[beta1607]

I think Frappe's raising standards are sufficiently wide here that you are justified in calling down and betting when checked to.

[frappeboy]

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I think Frappe's raising standards are sufficiently wide here that you are justified in calling down and betting when checked to.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well my minimum hand here is pocket queens. So what are the odds that i have QQ or AA in the hole compared to a king in the hole... I suck at math.

[blumpkin22]

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I think Frappe's raising standards are sufficiently wide here that you are justified in calling down and betting when checked to.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well my minimum hand here is pocket queens. So what are the odds that i have QQ or AA in the hole compared to a king in the hole... I suck at math.

[/ QUOTE ]

Without doing any math I can assure you that there is enough chance that you have QQ/AA and don't improve combined with the chance that you have KKK and he sucks out to win.

[peritonlogon]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
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I think Frappe's raising standards are sufficiently wide here that you are justified in calling down and betting when checked to.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well my minimum hand here is pocket queens. So what are the odds that i have QQ or AA in the hole compared to a king in the hole... I suck at math.

[/ QUOTE ]



Without doing any math I can assure you that there is enough chance that you have QQ/AA and don't improve combined with the chance that you have KKK and he sucks out to win.

[/ QUOTE ]

math, = on 4th 13 dead 39 live, 4 aces & 3 queens.
AA=6 QQ=3 at least 1 king =75 (38+38-1 think this is right)
9 times ahead 75 times behind. 8.33-1 or .12% chance ahead

2dimes querry equity of 666 vs. the 2 overpair with same dead ~ 78.5%
2dimes querry equity of 666 vs. KKK7 ~22%(KKK2 was a few .001 dif)
therefore equity equals

.785 * .12 + .22* .88 = .194

Assuming we actually knew those where frappe's opening standards, with 4.7 smb in pot and 2smb to call this is a clear fold.

[blumpkin22]

[ QUOTE ]
math, = on 4th 13 dead 39 live, 4 aces & 3 queens.
AA=6 QQ=3 at least 1 king =75 (38+38-1 think this is right)
9 times ahead 75 times behind. 8.33-1 or .12% chance ahead

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll have to think about this, but if this is right, then your calculations look correct.

[Roland]

[ QUOTE ]
2dimes querry equity of 666 vs. KKK7 ~22%(KKK2 was a few .001 dif)
therefore equity equals

.785 * .12 + .22* .88 = .194


[/ QUOTE ]


Uhm, no. If he has 22% equity against trip kings, how can he have LESS equity against the entire range.

I did the calculation myself and got 28% average equity. Not sure what that means.
Also, I think one usually has considerably more equity in this spot - the dead ten is the problem here. So I think this is probably a fold against Frappe, but only against Frappe or somebody with a similarly tight range and only because of the dead ten.

As an aside, I think it’s interesting that he actually has MORE equity with a 4-flush here (around 35%). And with 7d8d6dTd he’s only a 45-55 dog.

[BeerMoney]

Its a fold against frappeboy.

[blumpkin22]

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Its a fold against frappeboy.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wrong.

[BeerMoney]

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Its a fold against frappeboy.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

Failing to acknowledge the fact that frappeboy is one of the biggest rock at 5/10 is ignoring information.