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#31
10-05-2005, 04:00 PM
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Re: interesting WPT tournament hand
he has a set of 5s~ [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]
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#33
10-05-2005, 04:01 PM
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Re: interesting WPT tournament hand
[ QUOTE ]
Hero still should push. JT is just as likely as KQ or XX. The Harrington 10% is still possible (small pocket or something), and villain probably has hero squarely on AK and won't pay him off if he fans the river when he is drawing. [/ QUOTE ] This doesn't make much sense. Do you think the villian is putting together an elaborate bluff, putting his amateur opponent on TPTK, then cold calling with a random pair, with 4 players left to act behind him??? Villain has SOMETHING here. Maybe its TJ maybe its KJ, but a mid pocket, or air is incrdibly unlikely.
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#34
10-05-2005, 04:05 PM
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Re: interesting WPT tournament hand
[ QUOTE ]
Yes, like Ansky said, also I thought the hand was televised. Hero still should push. JT is just as likely as KQ or XX. The Harrington 10% is still possible (small pocket or something), and villain probably has hero squarely on AK and won't pay him off if he fans the river when he is drawing. [/ QUOTE ]Couldn't agree with this any less. Yes, TJ is almost as possible as KQ/XX, but you're throwing away every single read if you think there's anywhere near a 10% chance it's a bluff. And if it is a bluff, it will be with TJ or a "bluff" with KJ (hands pro knows are beat). I think one time I heard a rule about never trying to bluff someone who doesn't know what's going, and there's been nothing shared so far to show that Internet Donk is capable of realizing what a good bluff this would be if Pro had air (or relative air). The impression I've gotten is that Donk has tunnel vission with TPTK and favorable odds.
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#35
10-05-2005, 04:05 PM
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Re: interesting WPT tournament hand
Hero folds.
Look at it from the Pro's point of view: 1. He sees the donk try to raise UTG, signalling a strong hand. 2. He then sees the donk bet into a huge field - he is not doing this with JJ. Pro has to put him on at least top pair. 3. Donk checks the turn, signalling weakness (or maybe inducing a bluff so he can blast any sort of draw out of the hand with a check-raise?). In order for the pro's bet to work he has to believe that either his hand is best, or that the donk will be able to make a fairly big lay down. Granted the weak-tight read could inspire him to make this play, but the chances of getting called here are way too good for him NOT to have a hand that beats TPTK. My two cents, Sam Edit: What is the pro's stack like? If he can make this play without getting himself in trouble, I think there is a better chance the donk is ahead. If he's got a similar stack to the donk, I'm inclined to believe him.
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#36
10-05-2005, 04:09 PM
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Re: interesting WPT tournament hand
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Hero curses himself out for betting instead of checkraising the flop, then figures there's a 3:1 chance of being good here (not to mention the ace outs) so this is a no brainer call after which he can go cry himself to sleep in a side game. [/ QUOTE ] Err, hes getting worse than 2-1... not 3-1. [/ QUOTE ] Hero's stack is all going in, he's getting about 2.8:1 or so.
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#37
10-05-2005, 04:10 PM
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Re: interesting WPT tournament hand
Maybe,
a pocket pair still has outs for starters. This hand is about fold equity against a tight player. I have no idea what villain's capabilities are here but hero has backed away from the hand (after leading the flop), and villain doesn't need a hand to represent KQ or (55). Hero is probably uncomfortable for having missed the opportunity to raise BTF. Essentially I think the possibility of the Harrington 10% is not out of the question.
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#38
10-05-2005, 04:14 PM
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Re: interesting WPT tournament hand
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Hero curses himself out for betting instead of checkraising the flop, then figures there's a 3:1 chance of being good here (not to mention the ace outs) so this is a no brainer call after which he can go cry himself to sleep in a side game. [/ QUOTE ] Err, hes getting worse than 2-1... not 3-1. [/ QUOTE ] Hero's stack is all going in, he's getting about 2.8:1 or so. [/ QUOTE ] Since the bet is essentially all in, lets just say villain is betting heros 5500, and the pot is 4500. thats 10000-5500. Worse than 2-1. What am I missing.
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#39
10-05-2005, 04:17 PM
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Re: interesting WPT tournament hand
[ QUOTE ]
Maybe, a pocket pair still has outs for starters. This hand is about fold equity against a tight player. I have no idea what villain's capabilities are here but hero has backed away from the hand (after leading the flop), and villain doesn't need a hand to represent KQ or (55). Hero is probably uncomfortable for having missed the opportunity to raise BTF. Essentially I think the possibility of the Harrington 10% is not out of the question. [/ QUOTE ] You honestly think the villain called with say... 99? There is really no logic behind your reasoning, you are just saying its possible. I can't honestly beleive the villain would call with junk with 4 people behind him, with the intention of blowing the internet donk off of tptk on a blank turn.
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#40
10-05-2005, 04:18 PM
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Re: interesting WPT tournament hand
[ QUOTE ]
Since the bet is essentially all in, lets just say villain is betting heros 5500, and the pot is 4500. thats 10000-5500. Worse than 2-1. What am I missing. [/ QUOTE ] Any of my posts about math/pot odds being exponentially worse before 6 PM-ish since that's when my day basically starts [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] Heh, at least I don't add that way in games. Umm, 2:1...makes it closer. I think I can outthink myself and fold, but I don't like either very much and really want to checkraise the flop.
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