A Lovely Spot With Aces

[MRBAA]

Situations like this are why it is often not a no-brainer to bet two pair on the river. If he will fold kings, call with kings up and raise with anything better, and you have to call, it's probably okay to bet but not hugely +EV. If he'll also call with just kings, it's very good to bet.

[Jeffage]

I think this player in particular is pretty likely to pay off with one pair here, but it's certainly not a given. But he's much more likely than your average player in the game. Paying off the raise was tough, but I thought there was enough chance he thought he'd convince me to lay aces only (or even aces up) down and/or thought I couldn't reraise two pair due to the nature of his board made calling correct. Putting the chips in hurt though. Actually, the whole session hurt. But that's how it goes sometimes. I can't see checking here, but I CAN see a case being made for not paying off the raise.

Jeff

[beset7]

I was thinking today about this hand. I think 7th is a very clear bet because he's likely to check behind with kings or kings up but will call a bet.

But, Based on the boards, the action, etc it's clear that, at the very least, the other player thinks he is raising for value. Even a loose player is going to instinctively put Jeff on a range of hands and, deciding he beats most or all of them, only then put in the raise.

Our default line is always to pay off on this and similar rivers because of pot-size and meta-game concerns. Something about this standard logic annoys me. If even a very loose player would only raise on the river here beating aces up 95% of the time then why not fold? I know it's heresy.

[MRBAA]

I agree that this is a betting situation, but against a good opponent, it's closer than it seems. The fact he called all the way with kings says he isn't that good anyway. Realistically, you probably can fold to the raise as long as you haven't made any big laydowns. You'll just have to make sure to call next time if you think others in the game observe this and will take a shot at you. But I'd have a hard time laying down, too. The swings are brutal, whether it's 2-4 or 75-150. Just play well, really well, with your head in the game, and you'll eventually get hot. I was getting beat like a rented mule by some of the biggest fish on party last week. but I don't think I lost much more than I should have. I probably had about -80bb cards and -20bb bad play. Not bad. This weekend, I was +200 bb -- suddenly I was the one hitting hidden trips, making my flushes and str8s and so on.

[MRBAA]

btw, in the news view and gossip forum there's a thread about high stakes online n/l player "mahatma" losing $900,000 in about 12,000 hands!

[Roland]

[ QUOTE ]
btw, in the news view and gossip forum there's a thread about high stakes online n/l player "mahatma" losing $900,000 in about 12,000 hands!

[/ QUOTE ]

That’s nothing. I’ve seen Beer lose more than that on one hand.