Drawing the Line, Then Erasing It

[andyfox]

There's nothing wrong with suspecting an opponent has hand X and then changing one's supposition based on subsequent information. But here your opponent confirmed your suspicion. With you raising pre-flop and then raising the flop, your initial read for this tight player made sense. He'd expect you to bet your A-K (the most common hand opponent put you on when you raise preflop) again on the turn, so he'd continue to play possum, trying to trap the first limper.

As to your first question, I think we tend to subconsciously get entitlement disease when we have premium hands and improve on the flop. Maybe something like: "I have A-K. Cool! Ooh, and lookie here, I now have TPTK. This baby's mine." Maybe that somehow colors our objectivity when the turn and river are apparent blanks. I dunno. I think I see that type of thing more when somebody has A-A, K-K or A-K than with other hands that end up being TPTK. And as to your second question, no, you're not the only one who does this.

[tpir90036]

[ QUOTE ]
Typical game, six handed. I have AKo on the button. Two callers, I raise, blinds fold and we see the flop three-handed. Flop is K-7-5, no suits. Check to me, I bet, first limper checkraises, second limper calls two cold and I call. First limper seems aggro, second one seems pretty tight so I'm concerned with his flop coldcall on this ragged board and I'm thinking set. Turn is a deuce. Check, check, check. River is a 9. Check to second player who bets, I ignore my read and decide to raise, saying I'll fold to a 3-bet. First player folds, second player now reraises. Why is it that I can read a situation so well but then do something like this anyway, and not only that, but pay it off? Am I the only one who occasionally outplays himself like this?

Jeff

[/ QUOTE ]
Great post. It's hands like these where I auto-pilot away from my read and end up losing 2 extra BBs that keep me from being a big winner in this stupid game that I sometimes kind of play.

I wish I understood why I did it... but I don't yet. Probably some sort of fear of being constantly outplayed since I am such a tight player. Hopefully I will figure it out some day... I doubt it though.

I think your read on the flop is excellent, so I liked the fact that you didnt 3 bet the flop. But I do not like your turn play. By the turn this pot has gotten pretty big (approx 6.25BB) You need to bet this turn and give your opponents a chance to fold(if they both call with lesser hands you also make money but youd much rather see both or atleast one of your opponents fold). I know a turn bet is inconsistent with your flop read but you need to bet this turn in case your read is wrong. No read is 100% accurate. Now if the flop coldcaller checkraises the turn then you can make your fold since his preflop play and flop play combined with his turn play all point to a set.
One more thing, do I ever make the mistake your talking about in this hand. Absolutely never, I play perfect poker only. Seriously though, I play poker nearly every day, and every time I play I make mistakes, sometimes small mistakes, sometimes really serious mistakes. My goal is to always play perfect, it never happens, but thats no big deal. I think its healthy to have unrealistic goals. Poker is still a guessing game since we cant see our opponents hole cards, which means mistakes like the one you made are going to happen from time to time.

[skp]

I don't think Jeff raised on the flop, Andy. He bet, a guy raised and the other guy coldcalled two. Jeff then just called.

If I were the guy who coldcalled two on the flop, I would be hard pressed to check my set to Jeff in order to let him bet the turn.

So overall, I agree with many of the others that Jeff should have bet the turn.

If the first guy checkarises the turn, eff might well 3 bet as the first guy's raise might be b/c he's thinking "wtf, I checked the turn bcause I was scared of the coldcaller but the coldcaller checked the turn and it's now Jeff who is betting after he just called my flop checekraise. I am going to hit it again with my KT".

But if the second guy chcekraises Jeff (particularly if he does it after the first guy calls Jeff's bet), then Jeff can probably find a fold although one still wonders how in hell the second guy can confidently check his set on the turn when Jeff did not show much strenghth on the flop.

Interesting hand.

[poker1O1]

[ QUOTE ]
Why not just bet the turn here and fold to a raise? If the guy has a set, you aren't going to catch up on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Jeffage]

The middle caller is a solid player. I think he would bet a king here or a straight draw. His check-cold call of two bets on that board screamed monster to me for some reason. I can see the point you are making though.

Jeff

[AceHigh]

[ QUOTE ]
Am I the only one who occasionally outplays himself like this?

[/ QUOTE ]

No. I do it sometimes and it's clearly a leak. I am working on it. One thing that helps me, I think, is I have pokertracker and I can track W$SD% and see that it is going down or up. Somehow trying to keep that number high, helps me make these laydowns.

[Jeffage]

In case it wasn't clear from my first post, villian won this hand with a set of 5's when I paid off his river reraise. Thanks for your comments folks, very helpful and more are welcome.

Jeff

[Michael Emery]

Is this the same Jeffage who made that mind boggling laydown of aces-up when he sensed his opponent had rolled eights in stud? After a correct fold like that how can you not fully trust yourself? That $60 on the river would have paid for your dinner on the 17th, man. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Mike Emery

[Jeffage]

Don't give me that much credit - it was just aces. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Jeff