Defending Against a LAG With Big-Little

[sthief09]

ok I'm going to post this street-by-street, starting with preflop.

so he has initiative and position. I get in for half price. I have K4o and I like my hand and I think I can read the him and the board well enough to win on occasion with K high. unfortunately, him being a LAG is bad for my hand since it'll be hard to read him for weakness, though he appears to be a discretionary LAG.

so his numbers are 36/21 with a 44 attempt to steal blinds, 32 WtSD, and AFs of 1.8/2.0/1.8, over a couple of thousand hands

he opens from the CO. folded to me in the BB and I have K4o and call.

can I turn a profit doing this? if he's raising 44% in steal positions, I think a fair estimate is that he's raising his top ~38% of hands from the CO

the following represents IMO a fair range of his CO steal hands with the % of the overall distribution that they represent
<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>:
AA-44 15%
AK-A2 37%
KQ-K8 16%
QJ-Q8 12%
JT-J9 6%
T9 3%
K6-K2s 4%
98s-65s 2%
T8s-86s 2%
J8s 1%
J7s 1%
</pre><hr />

hot and cold I'm a 3-2 dog almost exactly against this range. what's worse is my hand plays like crpa since his distribution is so spread out. I could wind up paying off a ragged flop when he has A3 or folding a QJx flop when he has 86s

notice that 50% of the time I'm against an A or pocket pair and another almost 20% my K is doinated

[goofball]

Even against a LAG I think I would fold this most of the time. K4o if just too shitty. He's a LAG and he'll have position on you, so that sucks. He's a LAG so if you wsant to get some reliable information you'll have to put in quite a few bets. Suited I like, offsuited I don't.

[Digs]

I suck at playing this OOP when I can't narrow hand ranges past the 25% mark.

I muck this now~

[Digs]

Although, with a 38% hand range

. equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 60.6959 % 58.65% 02.05% { 44+, A2s+, K3s+, Q5s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, A4o+, K7o+, Q8o+, J9o+, T9o }
Hand 2: 39.3041 % 37.26% 02.05% { K4o }

[spydog]

K4 sucks and will rarely, if ever, make a stealthy hand that will get paid off large against a LAG. 64o will probably make you more money against this type of player because you will occasionally make the straight against his overpair and get paid off handsomely (or ugly, in your case).

[rory]

You need to know how he plays the turn before you can call preflop.

[sthief09]

yeah I kinda suspected that I'd need a read beyond numbers

[rtrombone]

FWIW, if my only read is that a guy is capable of stealing, I'll defend with Kx if he's the button and fold if he's the cutoff. But I'm starting to suspect this is too loose and may tighten up. Or start 3-betting.