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#12
06-20-2005, 10:06 AM
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Re: Bluff raising the river
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] preflop: i think this play is horrible. you are only a slight favorite over a random hand and there are 4 players yet to act. [/ QUOTE ] It's not horrible. He's about a 3-to-2 favorite over a random hand. That doesn't matter anyways because we're not all-in. Villian he's attempting to isolate plays poorly HU and that's a good enough reason for me to take a shot here. [/ QUOTE ] yes, he is a SLIGHT favorite over a random hand, but that's NO reason to raise. even a super weak and very loose player has an above average hand if he limps UTG (even if he folds only the worst 30% of his hands, he will have a random hand beat most of the time). that means, even if hero succeeds in isolating the weak player, the average profit would not be very high. but if any other player enters the pot (most of the time with a raise) hero will be a big dog and lose much money. 
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#13
06-20-2005, 10:10 AM
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Re: Bluff raising the river
[ QUOTE ]
yes, he is a SLIGHT favorite over a random hand, but that's NO reason to raise. even a super weak and very loose player has an above average hand if he limps UTG (even if he folds only the worst 30% of his hands, he will have a random hand beat most of the time). that means, even if hero succeeds in isolating the weak player, the average profit would not be very high. but if any other player enters the pot (most of the time with a raise) hero will be a big dog and lose much money. [/ QUOTE ] 3-to-2 favorite + buying the button + possibility of getting HU against a player who plays poorly post-flop + increased fold equity against any other loose cold-calls = decent play. If nothing else it is unquestionably not "horrible" - as you described in your first reply.
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#14
06-20-2005, 10:11 AM
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Re: Bluff raising the river
[ QUOTE ]
yes, he is a SLIGHT favorite over a random hand, but that's NO reason to raise. even a super weak and very loose player has an above average hand if he limps UTG (even if he folds only the worst 30% of his hands, he will have a random hand beat most of the time). that means, even if hero succeeds in isolating the weak player, the average profit would not be very high. but if any other player enters the pot (most of the time with a raise) hero will be a big dog and lose much money. [/ QUOTE ] You are failing to take into account the times that our hero, because he plays heads up much better than the UTG opponent, will actually get UTG to fold a better hand postflop. I'm with crunchy. QJo is more than enough to isolate with, provided that there's a reasonable chance we will get it heads up. -McGee
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#15
06-20-2005, 10:27 AM
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Re: Bluff raising the river
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] yes, he is a SLIGHT favorite over a random hand, but that's NO reason to raise. even a super weak and very loose player has an above average hand if he limps UTG (even if he folds only the worst 30% of his hands, he will have a random hand beat most of the time). that means, even if hero succeeds in isolating the weak player, the average profit would not be very high. but if any other player enters the pot (most of the time with a raise) hero will be a big dog and lose much money. [/ QUOTE ] 3-to-2 favorite + buying the button + possibility of getting HU against a player who plays poorly post-flop + increased fold equity against any other loose cold-calls = decent play. If nothing else it is unquestionably not "horrible" - as you described in your first reply. [/ QUOTE ] like i already pointed out: 1. QJo 60% favorite against a random hand, not against the hand of the UTG limper. 2. there is a pretty high risk to get reraised by one of the 4 players yet to act, holding a FAR superior hand to QJo. these two reasons alone make this play clearly -EV. in addition to that, the possibility to make mistakes like this one occur very often. habitually making plays like this costs very much money and i consider it to be a major leak. that leads me to the conclusion that i was absolutely correct calling this preflop play "horrible".
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#16
06-20-2005, 10:37 AM
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Re: Bluff raising the river
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] yes, he is a SLIGHT favorite over a random hand, but that's NO reason to raise. even a super weak and very loose player has an above average hand if he limps UTG (even if he folds only the worst 30% of his hands, he will have a random hand beat most of the time). that means, even if hero succeeds in isolating the weak player, the average profit would not be very high. but if any other player enters the pot (most of the time with a raise) hero will be a big dog and lose much money. [/ QUOTE ] You are failing to take into account the times that our hero, because he plays heads up much better than the UTG opponent, will actually get UTG to fold a better hand postflop. I'm with crunchy. QJo is more than enough to isolate with, provided that there's a reasonable chance we will get it heads up. -McGee [/ QUOTE ] the major mistake of the poor player UTG is definitely NOT that he folds too much. don`t overestimate your fold equity against a calling station. an other important point that i tried to avoid to mention it is the following: hero plays poorly after the flop too. many people overestimate their abilities and think they can loosen up very much because their skill is so much superior to the opposition. here a quote from inside the poker mind, p 10, essay "playing too many hands, causes and remedies". cause for plaing too many hands #1: "players overrate their abilities. some players, after developing a medicum of skill, begin to see themselves as playing somewhere near world class level. consequently, having heard that the best players can get away with playing more hands, they think they can do this too."
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#17
06-20-2005, 10:37 AM
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Re: Bluff raising the river
[ QUOTE ]
yes, he is a SLIGHT favorite over a random hand, but that's NO reason to [/ QUOTE ] this "favorite" bit is only a small part of the story. it's not run hot and cold. raising puts pressure, gets the initiative, and may get button. once you're raised preflop he has to improve or decide to take a chance bluffing. fold equity is the most important part. another factor (maybe not so relevant in this session) is when you play very tight, showing this play down gets you more action. I originally said fold because I put hero in MP (UTG, fold, fold, hero). In my changed answer I put him in CO, which seems to be another screw up. being in CO-1 it's a bit marginal but certainly not horrible. limpers are targets. unless there's a whole school of them, that's what you should think. you relish attacking them. and mixing up your hands a bit helps. let's put it this way--from the button I think this would be an easy easy raise.
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#18
06-20-2005, 10:51 AM
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Re: Bluff raising the river
[ QUOTE ]
the major mistake of the poor player UTG is definitely NOT that he folds too much. don`t overestimate your fold equity against a calling station. [/ QUOTE ] You are quite incorrect in assuming that UTG is a calling station - nowhere in the OP does Hero describe the UTG limper as a calling station. [ QUOTE ] an other important point that i tried to avoid to mention it is the following: hero plays poorly after the flop too. [/ QUOTE ] If it's so important - then why are you trying to avoid mentioning it? I won't disagree that this is likely a common problem but, again you're making an assumption that has no factual/evidential basis.
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#19
06-20-2005, 11:26 AM
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Re: Bluff raising the river
[ QUOTE ]
1. QJo 60% favorite against a random hand, not against the hand of the UTG limper. [/ QUOTE ] The original poster describes the UTG limper as "extremely loose." His hand is probably quite close to a random one in value. [ QUOTE ] 2. there is a pretty high risk to get reraised by one of the 4 players yet to act, holding a FAR superior hand to QJo. [/ QUOTE ] In my playing experience, three-bets are fairly rare. I'll agree that if you are three-bet, it's likely that you are in big, big trouble, but I can't for the life of me figure out how you'd be able to prove that the probability of being three-bet is "pretty high." You might even get a hand that was going to raise behind you (such as ATo) to fold! That'd be great. Preflop play is an interesting animal, because it is the one area in the game that lends itself to charts and absolutes and "if x, then y." But in actual practice, it's quite variable. Poker hands are not played in a vacuum. While it is usually incorrect to raise QJo, that doesn't mean that there aren't times where it is appropriate to do so. This is likely one of those times. -McGee
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#20
06-20-2005, 11:32 AM
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Re: Bluff raising the river
preflop is fine. what percentage favorite you are against a random hand is like almost irrelevent here.
people need to be thinking more about buying the button, the chance to take the pot down if you both miss, the chance to take a free turn card with a flop bet, the value you'll get when you flop a pair and get paid off by the loose passive player, (a pot you might have not won if you'd let other players stay in), and the number of profitable draws you can flop as well. OMG pokerstove says I'm only 60% to beat a random hand... a) irrelevant b) how much overlay do you need?
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