For You Numbers Guys..."2:1, < 1/3rd., Any Two" Problem

[Degen]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (4 handed) converter

SB (t1015)
Hero (t3770)
UTG (t1765)
Button (t1450)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t800</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero ???</font>



Now the problem here is with the rule (which I am a faithful adherant to) that if its for less than 1/3rd of your chips and the pot is laying you 2:1 then you should be calling All-Ins from the BB w/ any two cards.

Well this guy didn't push all-in, he raised. Here are the numbers:

Villain raises to t800, leaving 650 behind.
Hero has t3370 behind after posting BB of t400.
Pot is 200+400(blinds)+800=t1400

Now if he were all in, its an auto-call for me, as I'm getting 1400 for 400 more, over 3:1. But he has another 650 behind...if I raise him the pot will be t1400+650=t2050 with me having to contribute 1050 to get involved. This is still 2:1 and its not much for me...so I am thinking this is a push....


Any thoughts? He did minraise for most of his chips (screaming monster), should i not do it for this...



Andre

EDIT: I misread the stack sizes, corrected the numbers.

[Degen]

anybody?

[Nicok7]

Unless you have a good read I believe this min raise might be one of two things: either a monster or a really telegraphed attempt at stealing (read: I have a bad hand please reraise me). In the case you might even steal if you push!

So all things being equal and without a read I might decide to fold in order to keep the bubble alive, but I think pushing is +chips ev.

[lacky]

I would say the same rule applies. Your chances are about the same as if he pushed. The times he is min raising with a monster are countered by the times he will actually fold to your all-in. He shouldnt ever fold, but you do see it.

[curtains]

Easy fold. When you see this guy raise to 800, just imagine that he raised allin for 1400, its not much different. You clearly aren't getting proper odds to call with Q5o

[Madd]

The bubble is you friend as a bigstack. Fold now and keep on stealing afterwards.
Maybe he would fold to your push, but I wouldn't count on it. I would expect that all his chips go into the middle sooner or later.

[Elektrik]

Fold.

Push next 3 hands blind.

[UMTerp]

[ QUOTE ]
Easy fold. When you see this guy raise to 800, just imagine that he raised allin for 1400, its not much different. You clearly aren't getting proper odds to call with Q5o

[/ QUOTE ]

Because of the ease of which stealing should happen here, I wouldn't advocate a call either, but the odds are about there, even with a push (2050:1050 - damn close to 2:1).

[Nottom]

I think I fold this for the reasons cutains and UM alreadsy mentioned. Additionally, if I was going to play I would be running a stop-n-go 90% of the time. Your Pre-flop FE is near 0, your post-flop FE should be significantly higher.

[Voltron87]

1. odds are bad here.
2. stealing is good.

4. fold.