all-in - draw?

[scrapperdog]

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I make money from people that try and think out reasons to call a bet like this. I only need to be good 38% of the time is not a reason without a read IMO. Plz dont patronize.

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I'm sorry, but you are stating that you make money off of people who try to maximize their edges and make +EV decisions? Please, don't patronize me. That is a foolish statement.

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Against a good player this is not a + ev move. Reads on the players would be nice.

Without any information about the SB I think this is a really difficult question. Even his VPIP would help enormously. If he's a loose player who counted on the limpers calling the raise as well, then he has a huge range of hands. I don't see him making a move this strong with a range of hands that Hero is a favorite against. I know you got the equity from pokerstove, but as you said "Villain isn't really as likely to push with just a straight draw as he is to push with bottom set."

Some people see SB's huge raise as an attempt to end the hand because he's on a draw, but it could also be sets and straights just wanting to get it all in now. They know someone really likes their hand and is probably willing to call all in.

However, any read on SB would help enormously and could really change my advice on the hand, which is to fold.

[scrapperdog]

At least we got some good discussion here and the board seems divided on what to do which is pretty rare. I love these hands because there is no easy answer. Godfather I hope you dont take anything I say personal.

[Godfather80]

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At least we got some good discussion here and the board seems divided on what to do which is pretty rare. I love these hands because there is no easy answer. Godfather I hope you dont take anything I say personal.

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Never personal. I love spirited discussion. What else could we learn from?

Just to be clear, I too think this is incredibly close between call and fold without reads. How we make these close decisions is very important because it really hits our basic assumptions about poker, at least in my opinion.

[wdeadwyler]

I think this is a fold. SB does not have an overpair here. He has either
A)A combo draw, you are coinflipping.
B)A set, you are smoked
C)A str8, you are smoked
D)Nut flush draw, you are ahead less than 2-1.
I think D is very unlikely given action, though I supposed he could have AQs or AJs.

Even still if he has those hands he is not very far behind you. I think a fold is in order here.

[wdeadwyler]

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To be clear, I'm speaking about the situation where we are sure that we are 43% to win against villain.
Just to reference my admittedly arbitrary figures, Hero was 43% to win against villain's range. Given that hero only needs to be good 38% of the time, this is not really that marginal. 5% is no joke.

As long as you are adequately bankrolled, 5% is an advantage that you should be taking every time.


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Agreed.

However, your figures are quite arbitrary, and in this spot, I see no reason to conclude hero is a 43% dog. ESP since we have to weight villains range to include more sets and str8s than super draws (which we are barely ahead of anyway).

This is an easy fold.

[4_2_it]

I've read the thread and I like the discussion so far. SB's hand range is wide without reads. I remember several recent discussions about what hands to play out of the small blinds and the majority of the posters were calling with any SCs, any A or other hands that are easily dominated. Granted, there were (and are) a variety of reasons for doing this (easy to fold when miss, big payoff when you hit, implied odds against multiple limpers, etc.)

SB has seen a bet and a raise on the flop. People seem to like their hands. Many $100 players will push with the nuts or near nuts here because they don't like making difficult decisions when a flush draw hits.

Now as to what SB considers the nuts or near nuts is what we should be discussing. I would say at a minimum he has a set or a straight, against which hero has 4 or 10 outs, respectively.

This situation defines marginal. My advice to hero is make a read and go with it. I have both autocalled and folded in this situation before and hope to win at least 50% of the time. If losing your buy-in will not tilt you, then call, if it will then wait till you have a better read or a stronger hand.

[wslee00]

I'm at my work computer now, so I don't have his stats, but from what I remember, his stats were 25/8. Does that change people's analysis?

[scrapperdog]

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SB has seen a bet and a raise on the flop. People seem to like their hands. Many $100 players will push with the nuts or near nuts here because they don't like making difficult decisions when a flush draw hits.


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The reason I push is not so much because the decisions might get harder, but because I take the action while the action is good. If the op had 2 black kings for example and the next card is an ace or another jack or a heart hits then all of a sudden the op might not want to put his stack in anymore.

[wslee00]

well - The results were that I thought he was on a draw with that all-in bet so I called. He had J T, with the Jack of clubs, giving him a straight draw w/ top pair and backdoor flush draw. turn and river were blanks and mhig