just push the turn? slight overbet here

Maulik · #1 12-06-2005, 01:31 AM

please note my stack size & villains. 
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Button ($71.25)
Hero ($189.10)
BB ($120)
UTG ($63.85)
MP ($52.70)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Hero posts a blind of $0.50.
UTG calls $1, MP raises to $4, 1 fold, Hero (poster) calls $3.50, 1 fold, UTG calls $3.

Flop: ($13) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets $10, UTG calls $10, MP folds.

Turn: ($33) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets ???, UTG ...

Final Pot: $88

wdeadwyler · #2 12-06-2005, 01:37 AM

Why not just make it 25 and push the rest in on ANY river. Is villain capable of laying down KA, AA, KQ or flush draws on the turn to a push, if you even suspect slightly that villain will then bet 25 and stick the rest in on river.

kamjah · #3 12-06-2005, 01:45 AM

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Why not just make it 25 and push the rest in on ANY river. Is villain capable of laying down KA, AA, KQ or flush draws on the turn to a push, if you even suspect slightly that villain will then bet 25 and stick the rest in on river.

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so if a heart falls on the river, you put him all-in even if your pretty sure he hit his crappy flush? i never really know what to do when ive been betting my set hard and a donk has been calling me down for 3/4s of his stack with what seems like a draw, and on the river the scare card hits. Do i bet the rest of his stack for him. or check it to him and cross my fingers hoping he only has a tilted crap pair and checks it behind.

wdeadwyler · #4 12-06-2005, 02:46 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why not just make it 25 and push the rest in on ANY river. Is villain capable of laying down KA, AA, KQ or flush draws on the turn to a push, if you even suspect slightly that villain will then bet 25 and stick the rest in on river.

[/ QUOTE ]

so if a heart falls on the river, you put him all-in even if your pretty sure he hit his crappy flush? i never really know what to do when ive been betting my set hard and a donk has been calling me down for 3/4s of his stack with what seems like a draw, and on the river the scare card hits. Do i bet the rest of his stack for him. or check it to him and cross my fingers hoping he only has a tilted crap pair and checks it behind.

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Yes, even if he hit his crappy flush I give him my last 15 or 20ish dollars. He certainly wont be making enough out of me to make it +ev for him, and even paying him off my play will be massively +ev.

Your post displays a fundamentally unsound view of poker theory, Im not ragging on you buddy, I used to be there. Think of it this way.

If we check, and villain pushes, are you gonna fold (no!!!). Therefore, because we are gonna pay him off when he hits his flush, we might as well push the river, so that those times when he has a "crappy pair", we win that extra 10 or 15 from him.

He is a 4-1 dog to his his flush on the river, so by betting 25 into a 34 pot on the turn, we give him 59 to 35, him 2.36- 1 to call. If that is too close for you (it should not be), then bet 30 on turn, chrage him a a few more bucks.

The times that we get a call and he misses drastically outweight the times that he calls and hits, and if we push, he may fold the turn, so we give up the +ev situation I just described (although, if he calls the all in push a VERY significant portion of the time, which I do not think is the case, then a push can be better. But the aforementioned assumption is rarely satisfied satisfactorily)

kamjah · #5 12-06-2005, 03:10 AM

no offense taken, i know i am still very unexperienced. how would the situation change if villain had say closer to 100 dollars in his stack before the hand?