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#15
11-24-2005, 08:32 AM
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This is not as obvious as people seem to think
I think that people are answering this too quickly without giving it enough thought.
Suppose I am in the SB and Phil Ivey is the BB. Everyone folds to me. Ok, what am I thinking ? Well, firstly I’m sh!t scared of having to get involved in a hand with Phil Ivey. If we get to see a flop, then he’s definitely going to outplay me, and I’m going to lose chips, so the best EV decision for me is to fold. Even if I have KK or QQ, I’m going to fold, cos if I raise and he calls me, I’m in deep trouble after that because he’s got position, and well, because he’s Phil Ivey. Then I look at my hand – oh no, AA. Disaster ! What do I do ? I know, I’ll go all in. That way I cleverly negate his positional advantage. He can’t outplay me because I don’t have to think anymore. So, that’s what I do. All in. Ok, now look at it from Phil Ivey’s position. He has AA and the SB has gone all-in. Because he’s Phil Ivey, he reads the SB like an open book, and immediately draws the conclusion that the SB has AA too. So if Phil calls all-in, then 95.65% of the time, the pot is split. But 2.17% of the time Phil wins, and 2.17% of the time Phil loses. So Phil says to himself, “why take the chance of doubling up when there’s an equal chance of me being knocked out ? I’ll get lots of better opportunities later. So, I fold.” Result : Instant fold. 
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#16
11-24-2005, 09:33 AM
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Re: This is not as obvious as people seem to think
[ QUOTE ]
I think that people are answering this too quickly without giving it enough thought. Suppose I am in the SB and Phil Ivey is the BB. Everyone folds to me. Ok, what am I thinking ? Well, firstly I’m sh!t scared of having to get involved in a hand with Phil Ivey. If we get to see a flop, then he’s definitely going to outplay me, and I’m going to lose chips, so the best EV decision for me is to fold. Even if I have KK or QQ, I’m going to fold, cos if I raise and he calls me, I’m in deep trouble after that because he’s got position, and well, because he’s Phil Ivey. Then I look at my hand – oh no, AA. Disaster ! What do I do ? I know, I’ll go all in. That way I cleverly negate his positional advantage. He can’t outplay me because I don’t have to think anymore. So, that’s what I do. All in. Ok, now look at it from Phil Ivey’s position. He has AA and the SB has gone all-in. Because he’s Phil Ivey, he reads the SB like an open book, and immediately draws the conclusion that the SB has AA too. So if Phil calls all-in, then 95.65% of the time, the pot is split. But 2.17% of the time Phil wins, and 2.17% of the time Phil loses. So Phil says to himself, “why take the chance of doubling up when there’s an equal chance of me being knocked out ? I’ll get lots of better opportunities later. So, I fold.” Result : Instant fold. [/ QUOTE ] This is wrong on so many levels.
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#17
11-24-2005, 09:56 AM
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Re: This is not as obvious as people seem to think
[ QUOTE ]
Because he’s Phil Ivey, he reads the SB like an open book, and immediately draws the conclusion that the SB has AA too. [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Result : Instant fold. [/ QUOTE ] This is wrong. Do you see why? If you don't, I bolded why -- and by association, your reasoning for why the SB has AA and only AA is wrong as well.
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#19
11-24-2005, 11:17 AM
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Re: This is not as obvious as people seem to think
[ QUOTE ]
I think that people are answering this too quickly without giving it enough thought. Suppose I am in the SB and Phil Ivey is the BB. Everyone folds to me. Ok, what am I thinking ? Well, firstly I?m sh!t scared of having to get involved in a hand with Phil Ivey. If we get to see a flop, then he?s definitely going to outplay me, and I?m going to lose chips, so the best EV decision for me is to fold. [/ QUOTE ] If you're so afraid to play against Phil Ivey that you open-fold AA pre-flop, you probably shouldn't be playing in the WSOP in the first place.
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#20
11-24-2005, 11:28 AM
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Re: Theoretical situation.. first hand of the WSOP main event
[ QUOTE ]
AA is a close fold. KK is a very easy fold. Pocket horseshoes on the other hand, you're a [censored] if you fold those. [/ QUOTE ] Right... So when the guy flips over two purple magic wands you are screwed. Horseshoes is an instafold for me.
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