QTd in BB

ckmo · #1 10-04-2005, 10:19 PM

Button is 15/5
CO is 43/0

PokerStars 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (7 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
2 folds, MP2 calls, CO calls, Button calls, 1 fold, Hero checks.

Flop: (4.40 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero bets, MP2 calls, CO calls, Button raises, Hero calls, MP2 calls, CO calls.

Turn: (6.20 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero bets, MP2 calls, CO raises, Button 3-bets, Hero ???

what do you guys think?

Redd · #2 10-04-2005, 10:30 PM

I'd cap it. Nobody gets credit for a better flush yet, especially since the turn also completes an OESD.

milesdyson · #3 10-04-2005, 10:41 PM

call and check call the river.

there aren't any flush hands that button can have here that we beat. he most likely wouldn't limp J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9:diamond or worse being 15% vpip, and you have the Q and T. the possible flush hands he has now are A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (he'd raise the AKs).

hope he has a set.

at first i wanted to call here, see if CO caps and if so check call the river. if CO didn't cap i would bet the river to trap him between, but looking at your hole cards, we're not looking too hot here.

Redd · #4 10-04-2005, 11:01 PM

But there's 6 combos of 77, and 3x3 of each of the set possibilities for a total of 15 hands we beat versus the two flush combos that we lose to. We'd need to discount the losing combinations very heavily (like by 90%) to be behind his average range, would we not?

milesdyson · #5 10-04-2005, 11:40 PM

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But there's 6 combos of 77, and 3x3 of each of the set possibilities for a total of 15 hands we beat versus the two flush combos that we lose to. We'd need to discount the losing combinations very heavily (like by 90%) to be behind his average range, would we not?

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we really don't have a read on how he plays postflop, but the average tight passive 15/5 guy is going to have a very hard time 3-betting the turn with any set on this turn. that leaves the 6 combos of 77. do i think he 3-bets them here? not very often. by capping we also run the risk of folding the other dude.

lautzutao · #6 10-05-2005, 06:30 AM

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by capping we also run the risk of folding the other dude.

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I think this is the best reason for not capping the turn right here. If we raise and we're ahead we only capture 1 bet here by raising if CO folds, and maybe 1 or two more on the river. And if we're behind we lose more bets.

If we don't raise and CO calls(if we're ahead), we gain 1 bet here on the turn and potentially 2-4 more bets on the river if CO decides to call. We lose the same amount(unless we listen to Eskimo and cap the river [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img])

If CO stays around wouldn't it be +EV to bet this river for value and call a raise?

Hojglad · #7 10-05-2005, 06:33 AM

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by capping we also run the risk of folding the other dude.

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I think this is the best reason for not capping the turn right here. If we raise and we're ahead we only capture 1 bet here by raising if CO folds, and maybe 1 or two more on the river. And if we're behind we lose more bets.

If we don't raise and CO calls(if we're ahead), we gain 1 bet here on the turn and potentially 2-4 more bets on the river if CO decides to call. We lose the same amount(unless we listen to Eskimo and cap the river [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img])

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I'm sort of confused as to what all of this ends up meaning. What's your plan for the river if:
1) CO caps after we call the 3-bet by button on the turn
2) CO folds after we call the 3-bet by button on the turn
3) CO calls after we call the 3-bet by button on the turn

Assume a non-diamond river in all three cases. I am fairly convinced that a check-call is correct in all scenarios. I don't think we wlll have good enough pot odds to show our hand down if we face more than two bets after we check in scenario 1). I don't think we want to blow the CO out of the pot with a river bet or a CR in scenario 3, and I'm not convinced we are ahead here enough to bet the river heads up against the button in scenario 2.

tyler_cracker · #8 10-04-2005, 10:58 PM

Does everyone like leading the flop? I realize we have an equity edge and want to build a pot, but it would suck if MP2 raised, and would it be so bad to try and hit our flush for free? I also don't think we're taking this down right now on a coordinated board against 3 limpers.

I cap the turn.

TennesseeKid · #9 10-05-2005, 01:50 AM

Grunch:

Pre-flop: bet
Flop: good
Turn: call 3-bet

#10 10-05-2005, 01:58 AM

Cap and cap the river if the board doesnt pair up