super push

[wdeadwyler]

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Is it more plus ev to take the coinflip on the flop with the dead money or to get your stack in on the turn or river when villain is drawing dead (assume deeper stacks)

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Hero is likely anywhere from 52%-56% to win(maybe 50/50 against AA). Taking the pot after the push would be nice, but if it all goes in you're definately getting paid off if you connect, where as villian may get away from his hand if a heart comes on the turn. +EV by definition means that you are a favorite - you expect positive value, you can call 52-56 a coin flip, but it's of course not. While it's true that in small stakes you can wait for bigger advantages, you don't have to push small edges at these limits, but it's still the correct play no matter how you look at it.

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We are a 44 dog against a set, and abouta 55 fave against an overpair. We are about a 35% dog against a bigger flush, just to be nitpicky.

Now, coinflipping is plus ev, but is it not more plus EV to NOT lose our stacks when we miss and still stack when we hit?